Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Felix Auger-Aliassime: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Felix comes mainly from recent record by level and overall strength, which together contribute more than 10 percentage points toward his probability. Felix’s higher Elo at 1887.45 versus Tsitsipas at 1753.36 supplies part of that overall strength advantage. Auger-Aliassime arrives with no cumulative fatigue in this event, while Tsitsipas has logged 118 minutes on court already. Surface fit also favors Felix modestly, adding nearly 3 percentage points to his chances. Looking at raw profiles, Tsitsipas is ranked 53 with a form index of 58.50, a surface strength index of 27.42, a mean serve index of 96.88 and a mean return index of 87.78. Auger-Aliassime is ranked 4 with a form index of 40.00, a surface strength index of 39.59, a mean serve index of 97.09 and a mean return index of 86.25. The mean serve and return indices are close, so neither player has a clear serving or returning edge based on those metrics alone. Over their last three matches, Tsitsipas has two hard court wins and one loss, including a straight sets win in Cincinnati and a recent loss at Toronto. Auger-Aliassime’s recent slate comes from Wimbledon, featuring two wins and a five set loss to Novak Djokovic, all lengthy matches but leaving him with zero minutes of tournament fatigue recorded here.