Monte Carlo Monaco Clay Masters 1000 Round of 32

Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Blockx: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Flavio Cobolli

Rank: #13
55%
VS

Alexander Blockx

Rank: #92
45%
Expected Total Games: 23.2
Predicted Winner: Flavio Cobolli

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Player Metrics

Flavio Cobolli

Form Index: 55.6
ELO Rating: 1706.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1744.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 150.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 55.6
Clay: 45.7
Grass: 46.7
Serve Rating: 67.2
Return Rating: 68.6

Alexander Blockx

Form Index: 73.0
ELO Rating: 1633.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1654.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 310.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 50.8
Clay: 40.2
Grass: 39.5
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 89.6

Recent Matches

Flavio Cobolli

Alexander Blockx

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Flavio Cobolli
vs
0
Alexander Blockx
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Monte Carlo, Monaco — Round of 32 on clay at a Masters 1000 event. The model gives Flavio Cobolli the slight edge: a 54.59% chance to win versus 45.41% for Alexander Blockx, with a predicted total of about 23.2 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Cobolli comes in as the higher-ranked player (No. 13) with an Elo of 1706.82 and a form index of 55.60. He has played 150 minutes in this event so far and shows a marginally better clay profile (surface strength 45.72). Blockx is ranked 92 with an Elo of 1633.17 but a stronger recent form index of 73.02; he carries significantly more in-tournament fatigue at 310 minutes and a slightly lower clay strength (40.19). There is a pronounced difference in serving and returning profiles: Blockx’s mean serve index (96.98) is far higher than Cobolli’s (67.16), and his mean return index (89.57) is also well above Cobolli’s (68.65). That contrast sets up a classic power-versus-placement dynamic. Recent matches underline those contrasts. Cobolli has a mixed run — a grinding 150-minute win over Francisco Comesana in Monte Carlo after two straight losses earlier in the season on hard courts. Blockx arrives on a positive streak in Monaco, three straight wins including a 106‑minute upset of Denis Shapovalov and two straight‑set victories in earlier rounds, but the cumulative court time may be a factor late in rallies.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.2 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Flavio Cobolli versus Alexander Blockx. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Flavio Cobolli versus Alexander Blockx. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Flavio Cobolli - Alexander Blockx) -2.2 Most likely spread: -3 (Alexander Blockx wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Flavio Cobolli versus Alexander Blockx. Positive values indicate Flavio Cobolli winning more games, negative values indicate Alexander Blockx winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Flavio Cobolli versus Alexander Blockx. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 14.62 total, while the predicted double faults sit at 4.69. On clay, the expected aces are suppressed by the slower surface and higher bounce, and expected double faults can increase as longer rallies and fatigue set in. Blockx’s very high serve index suggests he will account for a large share of the predicted aces, even if clay dampens his raw numbers.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.6 Most likely: 14 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.7 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Flavio Cobolli versus Alexander Blockx. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Flavio Cobolli versus Alexander Blockx. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Flavio Cobolli versus Alexander Blockx. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Flavio Cobolli versus Alexander Blockx. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Cobolli’s higher ranking, superior Elo and fresher legs give him a narrow edge despite Blockx’s hot form and heavy serve. The key factor to watch will be how Cobolli handles Blockx’s serve-return balance and whether Blockx’s accumulated fatigue blunts his power late in sets.

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