Delray Beach FL, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Coleman Wong vs Flavio Cobolli: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Coleman Wong

Rank: #136
48%
VS

Flavio Cobolli

Rank: #20
52%
Expected Total Games: 24.4
Predicted Winner: Flavio Cobolli

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Ranking Trends

Coleman Wong

  • Current #136 2026-02-09
  • 3 mo ago #143 2025-11-17
  • 6 mo ago #174 2025-08-18
  • 9 mo ago #175 2025-05-19
  • 12 mo ago #165 2025-02-17

Flavio Cobolli

  • Current #20 2026-02-09
  • 3 mo ago #22 2025-11-17
  • 6 mo ago #26 2025-08-18
  • 9 mo ago #35 2025-05-19
  • 12 mo ago #40 2025-02-17

Player Metrics

Coleman Wong

Form Index: 58.5
ELO Rating: 677.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1565.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 368.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.6
Clay: 2.0
Grass: 3.2
Serve Rating: 63.4
Return Rating: 38.0

Flavio Cobolli

Form Index: 27.3
ELO Rating: 1606.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1640.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 101.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.2
Clay: 16.8
Grass: 16.7
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 90.1

Recent Matches

Coleman Wong
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Flavio Cobolli
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Coleman Wong
vs
0
Flavio Cobolli
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This quarterfinal at Delray Beach, FL is on outdoor hard courts at an atp_250-level event. Flavio Cobolli is narrowly favored to win with a 51.77% probability against Coleman Wong’s 48.23%, and the model projects a relatively short match of about 24.44 total games.

Match Analysis

Coleman Wong (rank 136) enters this match with a higher form index (58.46) than Cobolli (27.27) and has won three consecutive matches at this event, including victories over Brandon Nakashima and Nuno Borges. His Elo sits at 677.15 and he carries heavy tournament fatigue (368 minutes on court), while his surface strength index is 4.60. Wong’s mean serve index (63.45) is modest and his mean return index (37.97) is low compared with his opponent. Flavio Cobolli (rank 20) presents a contrasting profile: a much higher Elo (1606.79), far lower accumulated fatigue (101 minutes), and a surface strength index of 9.17. Cobolli’s mean serve index (96.61) is substantially higher than Wong’s (difference >5), and his mean return index (90.08) far exceeds Wong’s (difference >5), giving him clear statistical advantages on both serve and return. Recent form for Cobolli is mixed — a straight-sets win in Delray Beach was preceded by two straight-set losses in other tournaments — indicating some inconsistency despite his superior underlying metrics.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.4 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Coleman Wong - Flavio Cobolli) +0.4 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 16.46 total predicted aces, and the double faults prediction is 5.44 total expected double faults. On medium-paced hard courts, this aces prediction is consistent with a surface that rewards both big servers and strong returners. Because Cobolli’s mean serve index is significantly higher, he is likely to supply a disproportionate share of the predicted aces, while both players contribute to the expected double faults total.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.5 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.4 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Cobolli’s edge comes from a much stronger Elo, superior serving and returning metrics, and lower fatigue despite a lower recent form index. The key factor to watch will be Cobolli’s serve/return impact—if it translates into free points he should close out; if Wong’s recent match rhythm and stamina prevail, the match will tighten.

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