Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Quarterfinals

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rank: #5
44%
VS

Flavio Cobolli

Rank: #12
56%
Expected Total Games: 42.3
Predicted Winner: Flavio Cobolli

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Ranking Trends

Felix Auger-Aliassime

  • Current #5 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #8 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #5 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #27 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #27 2025-05-26

Flavio Cobolli

  • Current #12 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #20 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #22 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #26 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #26 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Form Index: 68.6
ELO Rating: 1856.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1906.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 696.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 39.6
Clay: 35.0
Grass: 30.4
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 89.7

Flavio Cobolli

Form Index: 71.2
ELO Rating: 1899.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1848.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 696.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.6
Clay: 38.5
Grass: 29.9
Serve Rating: 94.6
Return Rating: 87.0

Recent Matches

Felix Auger-Aliassime
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Tabilo (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Brandon Nakashima (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Roman Andres Burruchaga (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Altmaier (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (1-2) clay Hamburg 142 min

Flavio Cobolli
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Zachary Svajda (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Learner Tien (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Yibing Wu (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Andrea Pellegrino (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Ignacio Buse (0-2) clay Hamburg 91 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Felix Auger-Aliassime
vs
0
Flavio Cobolli
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland Garros quarterfinal in Paris on clay — a Grand Slam stage where patience and margin control matter most. Flavio Cobolli is narrowly favored to advance (55.56%) over Felix Auger-Aliassime (44.44%), with a projected match length of about 42.3 games, suggesting a likely four-set affair.

Match Analysis

Felix arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 5) with a strong serving profile (mean serve index 96.65) and an excellent return index (89.66). His form index sits at 68.64 and his Elo at 1856.65. Cobolli, ranked 12, posts a marginally better form index (71.21) and a higher Elo (1899.28). Both players carry identical cumulative fatigue from this event (696 minutes on court). On clay, Cobolli’s slightly better surface strength index (38.48 vs 35.03) may matter; the gap isn’t large but it aligns with his stronger recent trajectory. Both players have been consistent through the opening rounds. Felix won three straight matches here — 3-0 versus Alejandro Tabilo and 3-1 results earlier — showing steady baseline control and the ability to close sets. Cobolli also recorded three wins to reach the quarters (including 3-1 over Zachary Svajda and two straight 3-0s), demonstrating momentum and comfort on clay. Neither player shows recent slippage in results; Cobolli’s marginally higher form and Elo give him the edge in tight moments.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 42.3 Most likely outcome: 42 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Felix Auger-Aliassime - Flavio Cobolli) -0.5 Most likely spread: -1 (Flavio Cobolli wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is moderate: predicted aces are about 16.24 for the match. Expected double faults total roughly 6.8. On slow clay, aces are suppressed while longer rallies and accumulated fatigue push up the expected double faults, so the match should produce fewer free points off serve than on faster surfaces. No player has a significantly higher serve rating to dramatically inflate the ace count, so the aces prediction reflects steady serving rather than booming one-up shots.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.2 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.8 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

55.1% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Felix Auger-Aliassime's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (20.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Cobolli’s slight advantages in form, Elo and surface strength underpin the projected upset. Watch the longer return exchanges and break-point conversion — whoever controls extended rallies on clay will decide the match.

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