Flavio Cobolli vs Jack Pinnington Jones: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Cobolli arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 20) with an Elo of 1721.49, a strong surface strength index relative to his own baseline (8.24) and a mean serve index of 61.52. His form index is low at 9.21, and he shows no accumulated fatigue in this event. By contrast, Pinnington Jones sits at rank 173 with a much lower Elo (327.50) but a substantially higher form index (46.53). He carries 241 minutes of fatigue from earlier matches in Dallas. There is a marked gap in serving and returning: Pinnington Jones’ mean serve index (94.22) exceeds Cobolli’s by over 32 points, and his mean return index (88.15) also outstrips Cobolli’s by more than 36 points — differences that favor big-serving, high-impact service games for Pinnington Jones. Recent results underline the contrast: Cobolli has lost his last three hard-court matches (including Montpellier, Australian Open and Metz) with straight-sets defeats in two of them and one three-set loss. Pinnington Jones has back-to-back wins in Dallas (against Patrick Kypson and Daniel Dutra da Silva) after a prior loss at the US Open; his two recent wins include one extended match of 174 minutes and one short 67-minute victory, explaining his tournament fatigue tally.