Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Flavio Cobolli vs Matteo Berrettini Prediction

Flavio Cobolli

Rank: #6
53%
VS

Matteo Berrettini

Rank: #48
47%
Expected Total Games: 27.5
Predicted Winner: Flavio Cobolli

Why the Model Favors Flavio Cobolli

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +4.4 Flavio Cobolli
Surface fit +2.9 Flavio Cobolli
Age +2.5 Flavio Cobolli
Recent form +1.4 Matteo Berrettini
Recent record by level +1.3 Matteo Berrettini

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 53% for Flavio Cobolli. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Flavio Cobolli

  • Current #6 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #9 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #13 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #22 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #23 2025-10-27

Matteo Berrettini

  • Current #48 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #41 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #92 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #57 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #61 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Flavio Cobolli

Form Index: 46.6
ELO Rating: 1818.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1839.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 135.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 28.8
Clay: 37.7
Grass: 33.1
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 88.4

Matteo Berrettini

Form Index: 40.5
ELO Rating: 1693.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1710.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 83.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.4
Clay: 28.2
Grass: 13.9
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 84.5

Recent Matches

Flavio Cobolli
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Matteo Berrettini
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Flavio Cobolli
vs
0
Matteo Berrettini
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Flavio Cobolli is a narrow favorite in the Vienna Round of 16, rated 53% to Matteo Berrettini’s 47%. The projection points to a substantial contest, with 27.5 games expected.

Match Analysis

Cobolli’s higher standing, sixth against Berrettini’s 48th, reflects the stronger overall profile behind the pick, and he also has the better hard-court fit. He is the stronger returner, which could matter if Berrettini’s serve does not give him enough free points. Berrettini has the serve advantage and a counterargument in his latest result, a straight-sets win over Tomas Martin Etcheverry in Vienna. Cobolli also arrived off a win, beating Grigor Dimitrov in three sets, so the recent results do not point decisively one way. Cobolli’s return and broader level are the distinctions the forecast favors.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 27.5 Most likely outcome: 28 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Flavio Cobolli - Matteo Berrettini) -0.1 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Berrettini is projected for 10.2 aces to Cobolli’s 6.5, consistent with his stronger serving profile and the main weapon separating the two. Cobolli is forecast for 2.5 double faults and Berrettini 1.9, leaving Berrettini with fewer projected errors.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.8 Most likely: 14 aces Per player: Flavio Cobolli 6.5 + Matteo Berrettini 10.2
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.4 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Flavio Cobolli 2.5 + Matteo Berrettini 1.9

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Flavio Cobolli

Expected 6.5 aces

Matteo Berrettini

Expected 10.2 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Flavio Cobolli

Expected 2.5 double faults

Matteo Berrettini

Expected 1.9 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

50.4% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Flavio Cobolli's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (27.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

The forecast could turn if Berrettini’s serve regularly earns quick points and keeps Cobolli from using his return advantage. That is the clearest way for him to offset Cobolli’s stronger all-round profile.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel