Rafael Jodar vs Flavio Cobolli: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model's edge for Jodar comes mainly from his recent record by level, which adds 8.9 percentage points, supported by his wins over Alejandro Tabilo and Denis Shapovalov at this event. Serve and return game is the next important factor, contributing 5.9 points toward Jodar, followed by surface fit adding 5.0 points. On paper the players are close by ranking. Jodar is ranked 11 and Cobolli 10. Jodar posts a higher form index at 77.26 compared with Cobolli at 61.11. Elo favors Jodar as well, 1965.56 to 1861.88. Fatigue is comparable with Cobolli at 269 minutes and Jodar at 251 minutes, a small edge for freshness to Jodar. Surface strength also favors Jodar. His surface strength index on hard is 43.28 versus Cobolli 26.20, a meaningful gap that explains part of the surface fit boost. Serve ratings are similar, Jodar 96.03 and Cobolli 94.75, so no large serve advantage. Return indices show a notable difference, Jodar 91.75 against Cobolli 86.56, which is over five points and points to Jodar being the tougher returner. Recent form summaries show both with two wins and one loss in their last three matches at hard court events. Jodar beat Tabilo and Shapovalov, losing earlier in Toronto to Nakashima. Cobolli beat Blockx and Kecmanovic, with a loss to Hanfmann in Toronto.