Acapulco Mexico Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez vs Flavio Cobolli: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Rank: #218
17%
VS

Flavio Cobolli

Rank: #20
83%
Expected Total Games: 22.7
Predicted Winner: Flavio Cobolli

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Player Metrics

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Form Index: 23.0
ELO Rating: 231.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1510.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 1.6
Clay: 1.1
Grass: 2.1
Serve Rating: 35.4
Return Rating: 65.9

Flavio Cobolli

Form Index: 40.4
ELO Rating: 1549.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1640.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.1
Clay: 16.8
Grass: 16.7
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 90.1

Recent Matches

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

  • Last Match: vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (0-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Francesco Passaro (1-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg (2-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Adam Walton (0-2) hard Los Cabos 110 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Alvaro Guillen Meza (0-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Flavio Cobolli

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
vs
0
Flavio Cobolli
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 match in Acapulco, Mexico is on hard courts at a 500-level event. Flavio Cobolli is the clear favorite — predicted to win with an 83.30% probability versus Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez at 16.70% — and the model projects about 22.69 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

The two players present a large gap in experience and ratings. Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez is ranked 218 with an Elo of 231.43, a form index of 23.04 and a surface strength index of 1.57; his mean serve index is 35.40 and mean return index 65.90. Flavio Cobolli is ranked 20 with an Elo of 1549.28, a form index of 40.36 and a surface strength index of 9.09; his mean serve index is 96.75 and mean return index 90.07. The serve index difference (about 61 points) and the return index difference (about 24 points) both exceed 5 points, underlining Cobolli’s clear edge in both serving and returning. Fatigue is neutral for both players (0.0 minutes on court in this event). Recent form reinforces the gap: Pacheco arrives with one win and two losses in his last three hard-court matches (a win over Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg and defeats to Francesco Passaro and Adolfo Daniel Vallejo), with multiple three-set affairs. Cobolli’s last three hard-court results show two wins followed by a straight-sets loss to Sebastian Korda; he recorded victories over Coleman Wong and Terence Atmane before the Korda match. These patterns suggest Cobolli carries steadier recent momentum and a superior baseline of performance.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.7 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez versus Flavio Cobolli. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez versus Flavio Cobolli. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez - Flavio Cobolli) -0.8 Most likely spread: -1 (Flavio Cobolli wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez versus Flavio Cobolli. Positive values indicate Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez winning more games, negative values indicate Flavio Cobolli winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez versus Flavio Cobolli. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 17.75 total and the predicted double faults are 4.57. On hard courts — a medium-paced surface with a consistent bounce — that projected ace total is plausible: hard courts reward both big servers and strong returners. Given Cobolli’s substantially higher serve index, he is likely to produce the bulk of the predicted aces, which drives the expected ace count upward while keeping expected double faults moderate.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 17.8 Most likely: 17 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.6 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez versus Flavio Cobolli. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez versus Flavio Cobolli. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez versus Flavio Cobolli. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez versus Flavio Cobolli. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Cobolli’s higher ranking, Elo, serve and return indices, and steadier recent form give him a decisive edge. The key factor to watch is Cobolli’s serve — if it fires consistently he should control the match; if Pacheco can force returns and break early, the contest’s length and competitiveness could increase.

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