Marseille France Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Flavio Cobolli vs Stan Wawrinka Prediction

Flavio Cobolli

Rank: #6
67%
VS

Stan Wawrinka

Rank: #140
33%
Expected Total Games: 25.2
Predicted Winner: Flavio Cobolli

Why the Model Favors Flavio Cobolli

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +8.5 Flavio Cobolli
Age +8.1 Flavio Cobolli
Serve & return game +6.4 Stan Wawrinka
Recent record by level +4.9 Flavio Cobolli
Surface fit +4.8 Flavio Cobolli

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 67% for Flavio Cobolli. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Flavio Cobolli

  • Current #6 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #9 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #13 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #22 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #22 2025-10-20

Stan Wawrinka

  • Current #140 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #118 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #106 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #139 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #158 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Flavio Cobolli

Form Index: 35.9
ELO Rating: 1805.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1829.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 26.2
Clay: 37.7
Grass: 33.1
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 88.3

Stan Wawrinka

Form Index: 15.5
ELO Rating: 1517.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1597.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 166.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.6
Clay: 5.9
Grass: 4.6
Serve Rating: 94.7
Return Rating: 85.9

Recent Matches

Flavio Cobolli
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

Stan Wawrinka
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Flavio Cobolli
vs
0
Stan Wawrinka
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Flavio Cobolli is favored over Stan Wawrinka, with the forecast giving the Italian 67% and the Swiss 33%. This Round of 16 match in Marseille is projected at 25.3 total games, a figure consistent with a competitive contest.

Match Analysis

Cobolli is ranked sixth to Wawrinka’s 140th, a sizable gap that reflects the Italian’s stronger baseline profile. The age factor and his better hard-court fit reinforce that advantage in Marseille. Wawrinka’s serve-and-return game is the main counterweight. He also comes off a 166-minute win over Martin Landaluce, while Cobolli has spent no time on court at this tournament, giving the Italian a clear freshness advantage.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.2 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Flavio Cobolli - Stan Wawrinka) +1.9 Most likely spread: +2 (Flavio Cobolli wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Cobolli is projected to hit 7.6 aces and Wawrinka 7.4, reflecting their closely matched serve levels on hard courts. The double-fault forecasts are 3.2 for Cobolli and 2.8 for Wawrinka, so neither has a major projected advantage in that category.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.4 Most likely: 12 aces Per player: Flavio Cobolli 7.6 + Stan Wawrinka 7.4
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.0 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Flavio Cobolli 3.2 + Stan Wawrinka 2.8

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Flavio Cobolli

Expected 7.6 aces

Stan Wawrinka

Expected 7.4 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Flavio Cobolli

Expected 3.2 double faults

Stan Wawrinka

Expected 2.8 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

41.9% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Flavio Cobolli's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (39.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Wawrinka’s serve-and-return strength is the specific threat to the forecast. If it allows him to put sustained pressure on Cobolli’s service games, he can make the ranking and surface gaps count for less.

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