Delray Beach FL, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Terence Atmane vs Flavio Cobolli: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Terence Atmane

Rank: #64
43%
VS

Flavio Cobolli

Rank: #20
57%
Expected Total Games: 23.1
Predicted Winner: Flavio Cobolli

Player Metrics

Terence Atmane

Form Index: 25.2
ELO Rating: 782.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1534.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 103.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.3
Clay: 5.3
Grass: 7.2
Serve Rating: 80.4
Return Rating: 67.2

Flavio Cobolli

Form Index: 9.4
ELO Rating: 1606.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1637.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.1
Clay: 16.8
Grass: 16.7
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 90.1

Recent Matches

Terence Atmane

  • Last Match: vs Patrick Kypson (2-1) hard Delray Beach 103 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Frances Tiafoe (1-2) hard Dallas 108 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Francesco Maestrelli (2-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Ugo Humbert (0-2) hard Adelaide 92 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs James Duckworth (0-2) hard Brisbane 89 min

Flavio Cobolli

  • Last Match: vs Jack Pinnington Jones (0-2) hard Dallas 53 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Luca Nardi (0-2) hard Montpellier 74 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Arthur Fery (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Lorenzo Sonego (1-2) hard Metz 127 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Ben Shelton (0-2) hard Paris 92 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Terence Atmane
vs
0
Flavio Cobolli
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Delray Beach ATP 250 in Florida, Round of 16 on hard courts, Flavio Cobolli is the narrow favorite against Terence Atmane. The model gives Cobolli a 56.93% chance to win versus 43.07% for Atmane, with a predicted total of about 23.12 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Atmane (rank 64) arrives with a higher recent form index (25.19) than Cobolli (rank 20, form 9.44), but their Elo ratings diverge substantially: Atmane’s 782.77 versus Cobolli’s 1606.32. Atmane shows moderate serving (mean serve 80.41) and solid returning (mean return 67.23) for hard courts, with 103 minutes of cumulative fatigue from this event. Cobolli posts much higher serving and returning metrics (mean serve 96.60, mean return 90.09) and carries no tournament fatigue; both the serve and return index gaps exceed 5 points and are likely to shape the contest. Surface strength indices are low for both (Atmane 4.34, Cobolli 9.12), suggesting neither has a pronounced hard-court edge in the proprietary metric. Looking at recent matches, Atmane won his most recent Delray Beach match (a three-set, 103-minute victory) but lost in earlier events to stronger opposition, including a 174-minute loss at the Australian Open. Cobolli’s last three recorded results here are losses, including a quick 53-minute defeat in Dallas and longer matches on hard courts. Those results show limited form momentum for Cobolli despite his superior objective ratings.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.1 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this hard-court match is 23.35 total aces, and the predicted aces split should favor the player with the higher serve rating. The expected double faults figure is 6.58 for the match. On medium-paced hard courts, serve potency translates into more free points than on clay, so Cobolli’s markedly higher serve index makes him likely to inflate the predicted aces while keeping opponent opportunities lower — this informs both the aces prediction and the double faults prediction.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 23.4 Most likely: 24 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 6.6 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Cobolli’s advantage in Elo and markedly superior serve and return indices give him the modeled edge, despite Atmane’s fresher recent win and higher short-term form. Watch Cobolli’s serve and first-serve efficiency early; that will be the key factor determining whether the match stays short and serves his projected victory.

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