Tristan Schoolkate vs Flavio Cobolli: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model's edge for Cobolli comes mainly from recent form, overall strength, and surface fit. Those three factors together account for the largest shifts toward Cobolli in the explainability output. Cobolli arrives as the higher-ranked and higher-Elo player. He is world number 6 with an Elo of 1908.8, versus Schoolkate at 180 and Elo 1694.0. The model also favors Cobolli on surface fit, with a slightly stronger surface strength index for hard courts (33.71 versus Schoolkate 23.51). Fatigue is another practical difference: Schoolkate shows heavy minutes at this event (696 minutes), while Cobolli has logged 174 minutes, which will matter physically over best-of-five play. On paper serve and return profiles are similar, so there is no clear serve gap by the provided mean serve and return indices (serve: Schoolkate 96.01, Cobolli 94.73; return: Schoolkate 87.20, Cobolli 86.56). Schoolkate’s proprietary form index is higher (85.00 versus Cobolli 70.78), but the model still leans to Cobolli because his recent results came at higher competition levels and against stronger opponents. Recent form summaries show Schoolkate on a three-match winning run at the US Open, including straight and three-set victories. Cobolli is 2-1 in his last three, highlighted by a notable win over Tommy Paul and a tight five-set victory here, plus a loss to Arthur Fils in Cincinnati.