Munich Germany Clay Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Flavio Cobolli vs Vit Kopriva: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Flavio Cobolli

Rank: #16
61%
VS

Vit Kopriva

Rank: #78
39%
Expected Total Games: 22.8
Predicted Winner: Flavio Cobolli

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Player Metrics

Flavio Cobolli

Form Index: 59.0
ELO Rating: 1694.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1747.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 159.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 55.5
Clay: 45.0
Grass: 46.7
Serve Rating: 68.9
Return Rating: 69.8

Vit Kopriva

Form Index: 54.6
ELO Rating: 1616.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1673.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 250.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 51.9
Clay: 41.9
Grass: 39.3
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 93.2

Recent Matches

Flavio Cobolli

  • Last Match: vs Zizou Bergs (2-0) clay Munich 73 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Diego Dedura (2-0) clay Munich 86 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Alexander Blockx (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 85 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Francisco Comesana (2-1) clay Monte Carlo 150 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Raphael Collignon (0-2) hard Miami 94 min

Vit Kopriva

  • Last Match: vs Luciano Darderi (2-1) clay Munich 120 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Justin Engel (2-1) clay Munich 130 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Matteo Arnaldi (1-2) clay Monte Carlo 124 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alexandre Muller (0-2) clay Marrakech 109 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Hamad Medjedovic (2-1) clay Marrakech 145 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Flavio Cobolli
vs
0
Vit Kopriva
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Quarterfinals in Munich, Germany on clay at a 250-level event sets the stage for Flavio Cobolli vs Vit Kopriva. The model favors Flavio Cobolli (61.31%) over Vit Kopriva (38.69%), with a predicted total of about 22.79 games in the match — suggesting a likely straight‑sets outcome with relatively few extended sets.

Match Analysis

Cobolli arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 16) with a stronger Elo (1694.36) and a slightly better form index (58.99) than Kopriva (rank 78, Elo 1615.99, form 54.56). Cobolli’s surface strength index on clay is 44.96 versus Kopriva’s 41.90, and his mean return (69.80) and mean serve (68.92) indices indicate a balanced all‑court profile. Kopriva, however, posts markedly higher serve and return indices (serve 96.92, return 93.20) — differences well over 5 points — which point to a more aggressive serving game and strong return ability when fresh. Fatigue is a clear differentiator: Cobolli has 159 minutes on court in this event, while Kopriva carries 250 minutes from longer, grinding wins in earlier rounds. Recent form backs that up — Cobolli has won his two Munich matches in straight sets (73 and 86 minutes) after a loss in Monte Carlo, whereas Kopriva has battled through two long three‑set victories in Munich (120 and 130 minutes) and a three‑set loss in Monte Carlo. The contrast is experience vs. accumulated wear: Kopriva’s big-serve/return metrics are offset by heavier minutes on court.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.8 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Flavio Cobolli versus Vit Kopriva. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Flavio Cobolli versus Vit Kopriva. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Flavio Cobolli - Vit Kopriva) +4.1 Most likely spread: +4 (Flavio Cobolli wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Flavio Cobolli versus Vit Kopriva. Positive values indicate Flavio Cobolli winning more games, negative values indicate Vit Kopriva winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Flavio Cobolli versus Vit Kopriva. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 12.32 for the match while the expected double faults total is 5.67. On clay, predicted aces are depressed by the slow surface and higher bounce, so even Kopriva’s hot serve will be somewhat muted; this is reflected in the predicted aces. The double faults prediction and expected double faults are elevated by fatigue — Kopriva’s accumulated minutes make him the likelier culprit for late-match errors despite his higher serve rating.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.3 Most likely: 12 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Flavio Cobolli versus Vit Kopriva. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Flavio Cobolli versus Vit Kopriva. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Flavio Cobolli versus Vit Kopriva. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Flavio Cobolli versus Vit Kopriva. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Cobolli’s higher ranking, superior Elo and fresher legs tip the balance in a match where Kopriva’s raw serving and returning metrics pose the chief threat. The key factor to watch is whether Kopriva’s serve holds up under fatigue — if it does, the match length and the upset probability rise; if not, Cobolli’s consistency should close it out.

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