Munich Germany Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Flavio Cobolli vs Zizou Bergs: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Flavio Cobolli

Rank: #16
47%
VS

Zizou Bergs

Rank: #40
53%
Expected Total Games: 22.8
Predicted Winner: Zizou Bergs

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Player Metrics

Flavio Cobolli

Form Index: 54.6
ELO Rating: 1680.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1731.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 86.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 55.5
Clay: 44.7
Grass: 46.7
Serve Rating: 68.3
Return Rating: 69.1

Zizou Bergs

Form Index: 63.5
ELO Rating: 1644.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1652.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 69.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.5
Clay: 40.0
Grass: 40.8
Serve Rating: 98.2
Return Rating: 92.7

Recent Matches

Flavio Cobolli

  • Last Match: vs Diego Dedura (2-0) clay Munich 86 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Alexander Blockx (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 85 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Francisco Comesana (2-1) clay Monte Carlo 150 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Raphael Collignon (0-2) hard Miami 94 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Frances Tiafoe (0-2) hard Indian Wells 67 min

Zizou Bergs

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Flavio Cobolli
vs
0
Zizou Bergs
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Munich clay event in Germany, round of 16 action pits Flavio Cobolli against Zizou Bergs in a 250-level tournament match. The model gives Bergs the edge: predicted winner Zizou Bergs (53.26%) versus Flavio Cobolli (46.74%), with an expected total of about 22.8 games.

Match Analysis

Cobolli arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 16) with a slightly superior Elo (1680.3) and a respectable form index of 54.6. He has accumulated more court time in the event (86 minutes), which shows durability but also a higher fatigue reading. His clay surface strength (44.7) and balanced return index (69.1) make him a steady baseline presence. Bergs, ranked 40 with an Elo of 1644.4, shows stronger recent form (63.5) and lower tournament fatigue (69 minutes). Notably, Bergs’ mean serve index (98.24) outstrips Cobolli’s (68.31) by nearly 30 points, and his mean return index (92.70) is also substantially higher than Cobolli’s — differences that suggest Bergs can dominate quick points on serve and apply pressure on Cobolli’s service games. Over the last three matches both players have mixed results. Cobolli beat Diego Dedura in Munich and had a long win over Francisco Comesana in Monte Carlo, but lost to Alexander Blockx; his matches included a 150-minute contest indicating physical resilience. Bergs has two recent wins in clay events including Munich’s opener over Marko Topo and a notable win in Monte Carlo, with a loss to Alexander Zverev; his matches have generally been shorter, reflecting efficient serving and aggressive play.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.8 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Flavio Cobolli versus Zizou Bergs. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Flavio Cobolli versus Zizou Bergs. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Flavio Cobolli - Zizou Bergs) +1.6 Most likely spread: +1 (Flavio Cobolli wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Flavio Cobolli versus Zizou Bergs. Positive values indicate Flavio Cobolli winning more games, negative values indicate Zizou Bergs winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Flavio Cobolli versus Zizou Bergs. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 5.65 for the match and the predicted aces split will likely favor Bergs given his very high serve index. Expected double faults are 4.45; on clay the slower surface tends to depress aces prediction and can increase expected double faults as longer rallies and fatigue set in. With Bergs’ serving profile, the predicted aces could be slightly elevated despite the clay conditions.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 5.7 Most likely: 5 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Flavio Cobolli versus Zizou Bergs. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Flavio Cobolli versus Zizou Bergs. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Flavio Cobolli versus Zizou Bergs. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Flavio Cobolli versus Zizou Bergs. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Bergs’ combination of elite serve and return indices gives him a narrow edge, especially if he keeps points short to counter Cobolli’s greater fatigue. Watch the serve-return exchange early on — if Bergs converts free points, he should tilt this tight matchup in his favor.

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