Toronto Canada Hard Masters 1000 Round of 16

Frances Tiafoe vs Alex de Minaur Prediction

Frances Tiafoe

Rank: #11
39%
VS

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #13
61%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Alex de Minaur

Ranking Trends

Frances Tiafoe

  • Current Rank: #11 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #17 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #18 (2025-01-27)
  • 9 Months Ago: #17 (2024-10-28)
  • 12 Months Ago: #29 (2024-07-29)

Alex de Minaur

  • Current Rank: #13 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #7 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #8 (2025-01-27)
  • 9 Months Ago: #10 (2024-10-28)
  • 12 Months Ago: #6 (2024-07-29)

Player Metrics

Frances Tiafoe

Form Index: 60.6
ELO Rating: 1548.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1712.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 243.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.0
Clay: 14.4
Grass: 19.7
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 86.7

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 70.8
ELO Rating: 2797.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1795.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 90.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.1
Clay: 27.1
Grass: 28.5
Serve Rating: 94.4
Return Rating: 88.2

Recent Matches

Frances Tiafoe
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Vukic (2-1) hard Toronto 110 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Yosuke Watanuki (2-1) hard Toronto 133 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (0-2) hard Washington 117 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Flavio Cobolli (2-0) hard Washington 72 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (2-1) hard Washington 115 min

Alex de Minaur
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Comesana (2-0) hard Toronto 90 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Corentin Moutet (2-0) hard Washington 104 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Brandon Nakashima (2-0) hard Washington 95 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jiri Lehecka (2-1) hard Washington 165 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Yunchaokete Bu (2-0) hard Washington 109 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Frances Tiafoe
vs
0
Alex de Minaur
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the Masters 1000 tournament in Toronto, Frances Tiafoe faces off against Alex de Minaur on hard courts. The predicted winner of this matchup is Alex de Minaur, with a probability of 61.45%, while Frances Tiafoe has a 38.55% chance of winning. The anticipated total number of games played in this match is 22.0.

Match Analysis

Frances Tiafoe is currently ranked 11th, boasting a form index of 60.56 and an Elo rating of 1548.44. His cumulative fatigue stands at 243 minutes, indicating he has spent considerable time on court in this tournament. Tiafoe’s surface strength index is 12.99, which is relatively low compared to his opponent. His mean serve index of 97.14 is impressive, but his mean return index of 86.71 suggests he may struggle against a consistent server like de Minaur. On the other hand, Alex de Minaur, ranked 13th, has a higher form index of 70.78 and an impressive Elo rating of 2797.08. De Minaur has only 90 minutes of cumulative fatigue, which positions him favorably. His surface strength index is significantly higher at 22.14. The difference in their mean serve index is less than 5 points, but de Minaur has a better mean return index of 88.17 compared to Tiafoe's 86.71, indicating he may have the upper hand in returning serves effectively. In their recent performances, both players have shown solid form, with de Minaur winning all of his last three matches, while Tiafoe has a mixed record, winning two out of his last three.

Final Prediction

Alex de Minaur has a distinct advantage in this matchup, primarily due to his superior form and significantly lower fatigue level. His elevated return capabilities could prove crucial in breaking Tiafoe's serve, which may ultimately dictate the outcome of the match. Fans should keep an eye on the effectiveness of Tiafoe's serve against de Minaur’s return game, as it could be a decisive factor.