Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Frances Tiafoe vs Francisco Comesana: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Frances Tiafoe

Rank: #31
49%
VS

Francisco Comesana

Rank: #68
51%
Expected Total Games: 38.1
Predicted Winner: Francisco Comesana

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Player Metrics

Frances Tiafoe

Form Index: 60.5
ELO Rating: 1485.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1758.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.9
Clay: 10.1
Grass: 11.4
Serve Rating: 65.3
Return Rating: 62.9

Francisco Comesana

Form Index: 59.5
ELO Rating: 795.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1567.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 26.1
Clay: 22.5
Grass: 20.6
Serve Rating: 98.3
Return Rating: 95.8

Recent Matches

Frances Tiafoe

Francisco Comesana

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Frances Tiafoe
vs
0
Francisco Comesana
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 64 at the 2026 Australian Open, Frances Tiafoe faces off against Francisco Comesana on hard courts in Australia. The match is expected to be closely contested, with Comesana slightly favored to win with a 51.13% probability, while Tiafoe holds a 48.87% chance. The anticipated total number of games in this encounter is approximately 38.

Match Analysis

Frances Tiafoe, currently ranked 31, possesses a form index of 60.54 and an Elo rating of 1485.65. His cumulative fatigue from the tournament stands at 174 minutes, and his surface strength index is 7.90, indicating modest performance on hard courts. In contrast, Francisco Comesana, ranked 68, has a slightly lower form index of 59.53 and an Elo rating of 795.50, but he boasts a higher surface strength index of 26.06. A notable aspect of this matchup is Comesana's mean serve index of 98.32, which is significantly higher than Tiafoe's 65.32, indicating a distinct advantage in serving capability. Additionally, Comesana's mean return index of 95.77 far exceeds Tiafoe's 62.88, suggesting he may excel in returning serves during the match. In their recent performances, Tiafoe has shown mixed results, winning his last match against Jason Kubler with a clean 3-0 set score while losing to Daniil Medvedev in a previous encounter. Comesana, meanwhile, has also had an up-and-down tournament, emerging victorious against Patrick Kypson but falling short against Ben Shelton. Both players have demonstrated resilience, but Comesana's current form may give him an edge heading into this matchup.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.1 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Frances Tiafoe versus Francisco Comesana. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Frances Tiafoe versus Francisco Comesana. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Frances Tiafoe - Francisco Comesana) +0.5 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Frances Tiafoe versus Francisco Comesana. Positive values indicate Frances Tiafoe winning more games, negative values indicate Francisco Comesana winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Frances Tiafoe versus Francisco Comesana. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The expected total aces for this match is around 16.48, with an anticipated 5.44 double faults. Given the hard surface, which provides a balanced environment for both powerful servers and adept returners, the ace prediction reflects the strengths of both players. Comesana's significantly higher serve rating suggests he may contribute more to the ace count, while the expected double faults indicate that both players may struggle with their service consistency under pressure.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.5 Most likely: 16 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.4 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Frances Tiafoe versus Francisco Comesana. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Frances Tiafoe versus Francisco Comesana. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Frances Tiafoe versus Francisco Comesana. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Frances Tiafoe versus Francisco Comesana. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Francisco Comesana holds a slight advantage in this matchup due to his superior serving and returning capabilities, coupled with a higher surface strength index. A key factor to watch during the game will be how well Tiafoe can respond to Comesana's powerful serve, as this could significantly influence the outcome of the match.

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