Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Francisco Cerundolo vs Alexander Bublik Prediction

Francisco Cerundolo

Rank: #21
46%
VS

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #16
54%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Alexander Bublik

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Ranking Trends

Francisco Cerundolo

  • Current #21 2025-10-20
  • 3 mo ago #19 2025-07-21
  • 6 mo ago #21 2025-04-21
  • 9 mo ago #31 2025-01-13
  • 12 mo ago #30 2024-10-21

Alexander Bublik

  • Current #16 2025-10-20
  • 3 mo ago #30 2025-07-21
  • 6 mo ago #75 2025-04-21
  • 9 mo ago #37 2025-01-13
  • 12 mo ago #32 2024-10-21

Player Metrics

Francisco Cerundolo

Form Index: 42.0
ELO Rating: 1279.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1698.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 68.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.0
Clay: 12.4
Grass: 11.6
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 89.5

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 48.8
ELO Rating: 1680.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1748.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 68.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.3
Clay: 14.3
Grass: 13.4
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 85.7

Recent Matches

Francisco Cerundolo
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

Alexander Bublik
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Francisco Cerundolo
vs
0
Alexander Bublik
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the prestigious ATP 500 tournament in Vienna, Francisco Cerundolo faces Alexander Bublik on hard courts. The prediction leans towards Bublik as the winner, holding a probability of 53.64% compared to Cerundolo's 46.36%. The match is anticipated to be competitive, with a predicted total of 23 games.

Match Analysis

Francisco Cerundolo, currently ranked 21st, has a solid form index of 42.04 and an Elo rating of 1279.29. While his surface strength index stands at 11.98, his fatigue level is also notable at 68 minutes from previous matches. Bublik, ranked 16th, has a slightly better form index of 48.84 and a significantly higher Elo rating of 1680.07, indicating stronger recent performances. His surface strength index is 10.32, also demonstrating competence on hard courts, while he shares the same fatigue level as Cerundolo. Examining recent performances, Cerundolo has had mixed results: he won his last match against Alex Michelsen in straight sets but suffered a loss to Zizou Bergs in Shanghai just prior. Conversely, Bublik has shown resilience, winning his last match against Alejandro Tabilo, yet he faced setbacks in earlier matches against Vacherot and Mannarino. Notably, Cerundolo's mean serve index of 96.94 is marginally higher than Bublik’s 95.54, but the difference is not greater than 5 points, indicating a competitive serving ability for both players.

Final Prediction

Bublik's overall higher rank and Elo rating, combined with a slight edge in form, suggest he may have the upper hand in this matchup. One key factor to monitor will be the players' serving performance, as it could significantly influence the flow and outcome of the match.

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