Taylor Fritz vs Francisco Cerundolo: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Fritz comes mainly from his superior serve and return game, followed by stronger recent form and overall strength. Fritz posts a very high mean serve index of 98.37 and a strong mean return index of 88.27, which underpins the 12.4 percentage point tilt toward him on serve and return. Cerundolo shows credible return numbers as well with a mean return index of 90.11, but his overall Elo of 1765.43 and form index of 41.66 lag behind Fritz’s Elo of 1918.58 and form index of 66.91, which is consistent with the additional 6.9 and 3.6 point model advantages for recent form and overall strength. Both players carry identical reported fatigue from the tournament at 348 minutes on court. Fritz’s surface strength index is 42.03 compared with Cerundolo’s 35.60, a modest surface advantage for Fritz that aligns with the small model boost for surface fit. Over the last three matches Fritz has two straight dominant 3-set wins at the US Open and a loss in Cincinnati. Cerundolo arrives with two wins at Flushing Meadows, including a five-set victory over Jan-Lennard Struff and a straight sets win over Filip Misolic, plus a prior loss in Cincinnati.