Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 64

Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Francisco Comesana

Rank: #114
31%
VS

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #16
69%
Expected Total Games: 40.0
Predicted Winner: Luciano Darderi

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Ranking Trends

Francisco Comesana

  • Current #114 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #82 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #67 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #54 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #64 2025-05-26

Luciano Darderi

  • Current #16 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #21 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #26 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #34 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #45 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Francisco Comesana

Form Index: 56.2
ELO Rating: 1610.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1579.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.9
Clay: 20.3
Grass: 8.1
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 93.0

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 54.3
ELO Rating: 1782.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1818.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 20.0
Clay: 34.0
Grass: 15.6
Serve Rating: 94.4
Return Rating: 84.8

Recent Matches

Francisco Comesana
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Ethan Quinn (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jaume Munar (0-2) clay Geneva 94 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Valentin Royer (2-1) clay Geneva 122 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Max Hans Rehberg (2-0) clay Geneva 65 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Henry Bernet (2-0) clay Geneva 68 min

Luciano Darderi
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Francisco Comesana
vs
0
Luciano Darderi
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland Garros in Paris, Round of 64 on clay at a Grand Slam setting brings Francisco Comesana and Luciano Darderi head-to-head. The model favours Luciano Darderi as the likely winner (69.17%) against Francisco Comesana (30.83%), with an expected total of about 39.95 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The matchup contrasts a top-20 seed in Darderi (rank 16, Elo 1782.48) with Comesana, ranked 114 (Elo 1610.47). Their recent form indices are similar — Comesana 56.23 and Darderi 54.29 — and both arrive with identical tournament fatigue (174 minutes on court). Darderi’s surface strength index on clay (34.03) is noticeably higher than Comesana’s (20.29), suggesting greater comfort and consistency over longer rallies on slow courts. Serving and returning profiles differ: Comesana posts a mean serve index of 96.02 versus Darderi’s 94.43 (a small gap), but Comesana’s mean return index (93.05) is meaningfully better than Darderi’s (84.76), which could make breaking more frequent if he capitalizes. Over the last three matches Comesana is 2-1, with a straight-sets win at Roland Garros and a loss to Jaume Munar in Geneva; Darderi is also 2-1, beating Sebastian Ofner in Paris and Yannick Hanfmann previously while falling to Alex De Minaur. Both players have shown resilience on clay this season, but Darderi’s higher ranking and stronger clay index give him the baseline edge.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 40.0 Most likely outcome: 39 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Francisco Comesana - Luciano Darderi) -1.7 Most likely spread: -2 (Luciano Darderi wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 15.2 for the match and the predicted double faults at about 7.54. On clay, expected aces are suppressed by the slower surface and higher bounce, while expected double faults can climb as long rallies and fatigue set in. Neither server has a significantly superior serve rating (difference under five points), so the predicted aces total is more a function of surface and match length than a dominant big-serve advantage.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.2 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.5 Most likely: 7 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

52.5% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Francisco Comesana's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (29.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Darderi’s ranking, higher Elo and superior clay comfort are the primary reasons he is favoured. The key factor to watch will be Comesana’s returning — if he can convert his strong return index into early breaks, he can swing an otherwise tight match.

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