Santiago Chile Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Francisco Comesana vs Pedro Martinez: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Francisco Comesana

Rank: #82
48%
VS

Pedro Martinez

Rank: #101
52%
Expected Total Games: 22.5
Predicted Winner: Pedro Martinez

Ranking Trends

Francisco Comesana

  • Current Rank: #82 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #67 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #54 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #64 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #67 (2025-02-24)

Pedro Martinez

  • Current Rank: #101 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #94 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #66 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #48 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #36 (2025-02-24)

Player Metrics

Francisco Comesana

Form Index: 24.0
ELO Rating: 774.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1559.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.4
Clay: 6.6
Grass: 6.9
Serve Rating: 80.9
Return Rating: 66.5

Pedro Martinez

Form Index: 25.9
ELO Rating: 641.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1614.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.7
Clay: 6.7
Grass: 6.0
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 92.0

Recent Matches

Francisco Comesana
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (1-2) clay Rio 156 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 125 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Frances Tiafoe (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Patrick Kypson (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (0-2) hard Auckland 102 min

Pedro Martinez
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Damir Dzumhur (1-1) clay Rio 159 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Luciano Darderi (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 91 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 123 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Lautaro Midon (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 95 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Adrian Mannarino (0-2) hard Montpellier 96 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Francisco Comesana
vs
0
Pedro Martinez
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 clash in Santiago, Chile is on clay at a 250-level event and projects as a tight matchup between Francisco Comesana and Pedro Martinez. The model slightly favors Pedro Martinez to win (51.94%) over Francisco Comesana (48.06%), with an expected total of about 22.53 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Comesana arrives ranked 82 with a form index of 23.98 and an Elo of 774.88; he shows no tournament fatigue and a surface strength index of 6.64. Martinez is ranked 101, with a slightly higher form index of 25.87 but a lower Elo of 641.94, also reporting no fatigue and a surface strength index of 6.69. The mean serve indices diverge notably (Comesana 80.92 vs Martinez 96.91), a difference of roughly 16 points that should favor Martinez on serve; the mean return indices are even more polarized (Comesana 66.53 vs Martinez 92.01), a gap of about 25 points indicating Martinez’s return profile is markedly stronger in the data. Recent form shows Comesana has struggled in his last three matches, losing to Etcheverry in Rio (1–2) and earlier defeats in Buenos Aires and the Australian Open, with long match durations suggesting physical exertion in recent weeks. Martinez’s last three results are mixed: a win over Cerundolo in Buenos Aires, followed by losses to Darderi and Dzumhur; his Rio match also went to extended time. Both players bring clay experience, but the recent results imply marginally more consistency for Martinez.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.5 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is about 15.91 total (predicted aces), and the double faults prediction sits at roughly 5.94 (expected double faults). Clay typically suppresses ace counts due to slower ball speed and higher bounce, so these predicted aces are moderate rather than high. Given Martinez’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute a larger share of the predicted aces, while longer rallies on clay can increase the chance of the expected double faults late in rallies.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.9 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Martinez’s edge in serve and especially return indices, combined with slightly better recent form, is the main reason he is the projected winner. A key factor to watch will be how Comesana handles Martinez’s heavier serving and return pressure early in each set.

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