Paris France Hard Masters 1000 Round of 32

Gabriel Diallo vs Alex de Minaur Prediction

Gabriel Diallo

Rank: #42
33%
VS

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #6
67%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Alex de Minaur

Ranking Trends

Gabriel Diallo

  • Current Rank: #42 (2025-10-27)
  • 3 Months Ago: #36 (2025-07-28)
  • 6 Months Ago: #78 (2025-04-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #85 (2025-01-27)
  • 12 Months Ago: #89 (2024-10-28)

Alex de Minaur

  • Current Rank: #6 (2025-10-27)
  • 3 Months Ago: #8 (2025-07-28)
  • 6 Months Ago: #7 (2025-04-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #8 (2025-01-27)
  • 12 Months Ago: #10 (2024-10-28)

Player Metrics

Gabriel Diallo

Form Index: 29.6
ELO Rating: 1173.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1609.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.4
Clay: 8.0
Grass: 8.6
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 86.1

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 60.7
ELO Rating: 2461.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1796.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.3
Clay: 27.1
Grass: 28.5
Serve Rating: 94.4
Return Rating: 87.7

Recent Matches

Gabriel Diallo
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (0-2) hard Basel 110 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs James Duckworth (1-2) hard Almaty 150 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Amir Omarkhanov (2-0) hard Almaty 62 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Zizou Bergs (1-2) hard Shanghai 168 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs David Goffin (1-0) hard Shanghai 10 min

Alex de Minaur
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) hard Vienna 87 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Matteo Berrettini (2-0) hard Vienna 103 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Filip Misolic (2-0) hard Vienna 88 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jurij Rodionov (2-0) hard Vienna 80 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Daniil Medvedev (0-2) hard Shanghai 113 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Gabriel Diallo
vs
0
Alex de Minaur
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the prestigious Masters 1000 tournament held in Paris, Gabriel Diallo faces Alex de Minaur on hard courts. The match promises to be an engaging contest, but the odds favor de Minaur, who is predicted to win with a probability of 67.07%, compared to Diallo's 32.93%. The predicted total number of games played in this encounter is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Gabriel Diallo, currently ranked 42, has a form index of 29.65, indicating a challenging recent performance. His Elo rating stands at 1173.56, and he exhibits a surface strength index of 8.40, suggesting he may struggle on hard courts against top opponents. Diallo’s mean serve index is notably higher at 97.41 compared to de Minaur's 94.45, giving him a slight edge in serving. However, his mean return index of 86.10 is lower than de Minaur's 87.65, which could impact his ability to capitalize on de Minaur's serves. Conversely, Alex de Minaur is ranked 6 with a much higher form index of 60.74, reflecting better recent performances. His Elo rating of 2461.19 emphasizes his status as a formidable competitor. De Minaur's last three matches show a mixed bag; he lost to Jannik Sinner but secured wins against Matteo Berrettini and Filip Misolic, demonstrating resilience and capability in maintaining competitive form. In contrast, Diallo has faced difficulties, losing his last two matches after a victory in the first, which may affect his confidence heading into this match.

Final Prediction

Alex de Minaur's higher ranking, superior form index, and recent performances provide him with a significant advantage in this matchup. The key factor to watch will be how well Diallo can leverage his serve against de Minaur's strong return game; if he cannot maintain pressure during his service games, de Minaur is likely to capitalize and dictate the match tempo.