Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Mattia Bellucci vs Gabriel Diallo: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Mattia Bellucci

Rank: #110
54%
VS

Gabriel Diallo

Rank: #41
46%
Expected Total Games: 23.1
Predicted Winner: Mattia Bellucci

Ranking Trends

Mattia Bellucci

  • Current Rank: #110 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #74 (2025-12-01)
  • 6 Months Ago: #65 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #68 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #70 (2025-03-03)

Gabriel Diallo

  • Current Rank: #41 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #41 (2025-12-01)
  • 6 Months Ago: #33 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #54 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #88 (2025-03-03)

Player Metrics

Mattia Bellucci

Form Index: 38.1
ELO Rating: 856.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1556.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.1
Clay: 5.7
Grass: 7.2
Serve Rating: 79.7
Return Rating: 52.1

Gabriel Diallo

Form Index: 7.4
ELO Rating: 1019.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1553.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.7
Clay: 11.0
Grass: 12.0
Serve Rating: 98.3
Return Rating: 88.8

Recent Matches

Mattia Bellucci
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Frances Tiafoe (0-2) hard Acapulco 106 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (2-0) hard Acapulco 73 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Rinky Hijikata (2-0) hard Acapulco 124 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Miomir Kecmanovic (0-2) hard Delray Beach 62 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Brandon Nakashima (0-2) hard Dallas 68 min

Gabriel Diallo
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Adam Walton (0-2) hard Delray Beach 90 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (0-2) hard Dallas 97 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Andrea Vavassori (0-2) hard Adelaide 109 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Coleman Wong (1-2) hard Hong Kong 149 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Mattia Bellucci
vs
1
Gabriel Diallo
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Indian Wells in California, Round of 128 on outdoor hard courts at a Masters 1000 event, Mattia Bellucci is narrowly favored to upset Gabriel Diallo. The model gives Bellucci a 53.84% chance to win against Diallo’s 46.16%, with a predicted total of about 23.14 games for the match.

Match Analysis

Bellucci arrives ranked 110 with a form index of 38.05 and an Elo of 856.85; his fatigue reading is zero and his hard-court surface strength index sits at 5.11. Diallo is the higher-ranked player at 41, but his recent form index is 7.39 with a stronger Elo of 1019.46 and a surface strength index of 7.68; he also shows no tournament fatigue. The serving and returning profiles are notably different: Diallo’s mean serve index (98.25) is substantially higher than Bellucci’s (79.66), a gap of nearly 19 points, and his mean return index (88.77) eclipses Bellucci’s (52.13) by roughly 36 points — both differences likely to shape patterns of hold and break opportunities. Looking at recent matches, Bellucci has two straight wins in Acapulco over Davidovich Fokina and Hijikata before a 2-0 loss to Frances Tiafoe; those results show he can close out best-of-three matches on hard courts. Diallo’s last three outings ended in straight-set losses (Delray Beach, Dallas and the Australian Open match vs. Zverev), suggesting he’s struggling to convert chances into wins despite strong underlying metrics. Neither player carries match-court fatigue into Indian Wells.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.1 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is modest: the model’s predicted aces total is 6.72. Given the medium-paced hard court, that aligns with a balanced serving day rather than a barrage of aces. Expected double faults sit at 4.11 — a double faults prediction that reflects a moderate risk from both players. With Diallo’s significantly higher serve rating, he’s the likelier source of the bulk of the predicted aces, while Bellucci’s lower serve index increases the chance he contributes more to the expected double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 6.7 Most likely: 6 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Bellucci’s slight edge in the model appears driven by recent wins and a readiness on hard courts, even though Diallo boasts superior raw serve and return indices. The key factor to watch is how effectively Diallo’s big-serve and return numbers translate under pressure; if Bellucci can neutralize those weapons early, he’ll validate the narrow favorite status.

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