Cincinnati OH, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Sebastian Baez vs Gabriel Diallo Prediction

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #45
39%
VS

Gabriel Diallo

Rank: #36
61%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Gabriel Diallo

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Ranking Trends

Sebastian Baez

  • Current #45 2025-07-28
  • 3 mo ago #33 2025-05-05
  • 6 mo ago #31 2025-02-03
  • 9 mo ago #27 2024-11-04
  • 12 mo ago #20 2024-08-12

Gabriel Diallo

  • Current #36 2025-07-28
  • 3 mo ago #54 2025-05-05
  • 6 mo ago #85 2025-02-03
  • 9 mo ago #88 2024-11-04
  • 12 mo ago #155 2024-08-12

Player Metrics

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 30.9
ELO Rating: 1026.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1614.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 76.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.8
Clay: 9.1
Grass: 13.4
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 89.6

Gabriel Diallo

Form Index: 44.6
ELO Rating: 1321.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1616.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.6
Clay: 8.0
Grass: 8.8
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 86.2

Recent Matches

Sebastian Baez
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Gabriel Diallo
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Taylor Fritz (0-2) hard Toronto 75 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Matteo Gigante (2-0) hard Toronto 106 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (0-2) hard Washington 61 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Fabian Marozsan (2-0) hard Washington 73 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Taylor Fritz (2-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Sebastian Baez
vs
0
Gabriel Diallo
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match at the Cincinnati Masters 1000 will see Sebastian Baez face off against Gabriel Diallo in the Round of 64. Both players will compete on hard courts in Ohio, with Diallo being favored to win, holding a 60.51% probability compared to Baez's 39.49%. The predicted total number of games played in this encounter is set at 23.0.

Match Analysis

Sebastian Baez currently ranks 45th, with a form index of 30.88 and an Elo rating of approximately 1026.02. His fatigue level is notably high at 76.0 minutes, which could impact his performance. His surface strength index sits at 9.82, while his mean serve index is 96.57, exceeding Diallo’s mean serve index by just 0.4 points. However, Baez boasts a stronger return index at 89.60 compared to Diallo’s 86.18, a difference of 3.42 points. Gabriel Diallo, ranked 36th, exhibits a better form index of 44.65 and a significantly higher Elo rating of 1321.02. Notably, Diallo has zero cumulative fatigue from the current tournament, suggesting he is fresh for this upcoming match. His surface strength index is slightly lower at 8.64 but remains competitive. In their recent performances, Baez has struggled, with only one win in his last three matches, while Diallo has shown resilience, securing a win against Matteo Gigante but losing to Taylor Fritz in his last outing.

Final Prediction

Gabriel Diallo's fresher state and higher Elo rating give him an edge over Baez in this matchup. The key factor to monitor will be how Baez's fatigue influences his ability to capitalize on his strong return game against Diallo's serve, which could prove crucial in determining the match's outcome.

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