Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo vs Gael Monfils: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Rank: #61
42%
VS

Gael Monfils

Rank: #307
58%
Expected Total Games: 38.9
Predicted Winner: Gael Monfils

Why the Model Favors Gael Monfils

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +10.4 Gael Monfils
Age +8.9 Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Surface fit +4.8 Gael Monfils
Overall strength +3.6 Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Recent form +3.6 Gael Monfils

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 58% for Gael Monfils. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Metrics

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Form Index: 40.6
ELO Rating: 1619.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1684.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.4
Clay: 18.4
Grass: 4.8
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 91.2

Gael Monfils

Form Index: 27.6
ELO Rating: 1511.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1537.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 20.8
Clay: 15.3
Grass: 11.1
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 87.0

Recent Matches

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

  • Last Match: vs Botic van de Zandschulp (0-2) hard Winston Salem 70 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Pablo Carreno Busta (1-0) hard Winston Salem 67 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Tommy Paul (1-2) hard Cincinnati 137 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Valentin Vacherot (2-0) hard Cincinnati 80 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Kyrian Jacquet (2-0) hard Cincinnati 70 min

Gael Monfils

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
vs
0
Gael Monfils
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the 2026 US Open in New York, first round action on hard courts brings Adolfo Daniel Vallejo against Gael Monfils in the Round of 128. The model picks Gael Monfils to win, with a 58.51 percent chance versus 41.49 percent for Vallejo. The match is projected to run about 38.9 games in total.

Match Analysis

The model's edge for Monfils comes mainly from recent record by level, surface fit, and recent form, while age and overall strength tilt back toward Vallejo. Recent record by level contributes the largest boost toward Monfils because his results at higher level events in the sample carry weight, even though his last two outings listed were losses. Surface fit also favors Monfils slightly, reflected in a higher surface strength index. Vallejo gains from age and an overall higher Elo and rank, which the model treats as a steadying influence. Vallejo arrives as the higher ranked player at 61 versus Monfils at 307. Vallejo posts a stronger form index at 40.49 against Monfils at 27.25. Elo favors Vallejo 1620.91 to 1511.57. Both show zero tournament fatigue. On hard courts Vallejo has a surface strength index of 17.94 while Monfils is 20.79. Serve and return profiles are similar. Vallejo has a mean serve index of 95.11 and mean return index of 91.23. Monfils shows a mean serve index of 95.82 and mean return index of 87.04. Over the last three matches Vallejo beat Pablo Carreno Busta and lost to Botic van de Zandschulp and Tommy Paul. Monfils recorded a win over Kamil Majchrzak but followed with defeats to Learner Tien and Rinky Hijikata. Match lengths have varied, with Monfils involved in some longer encounters recently.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.9 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Adolfo Daniel Vallejo versus Gael Monfils. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Adolfo Daniel Vallejo versus Gael Monfils. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Adolfo Daniel Vallejo - Gael Monfils) -0.6 Most likely spread: -1 (Gael Monfils wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Adolfo Daniel Vallejo versus Gael Monfils. Positive values indicate Adolfo Daniel Vallejo winning more games, negative values indicate Gael Monfils winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Adolfo Daniel Vallejo versus Gael Monfils. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction calls for 17.65 total aces in the match, with predicted aces split 7.37 for Vallejo and 10.47 for Monfils. The expected double faults total is 11.26, split 5.29 for Vallejo and 5.99 for Monfils. On hard courts a medium paced surface, these predicted aces and expected double faults reflect a balance between power and return opportunities. Both players have similar serve ratings, and the per player ace projections quantify that gap at about 7.4 versus 10.5.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 17.7 Most likely: 15 aces Per player: Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 7.4 + Gael Monfils 10.5
Expected Total Double Faults 11.2 Most likely: 10 double faults Per player: Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 5.3 + Gael Monfils 6.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Adolfo Daniel Vallejo versus Gael Monfils. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Adolfo Daniel Vallejo versus Gael Monfils. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

🎯 Aces by Player

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Expected 7.4 aces

Probability distribution for the aces Adolfo Daniel Vallejo serves in this match.
Gael Monfils

Expected 10.5 aces

Probability distribution for the aces Gael Monfils serves in this match.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Adolfo Daniel Vallejo versus Gael Monfils. The chart shows the predicted probability for each double-fault count.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Adolfo Daniel Vallejo versus Gael Monfils. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Double Faults by Player

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Expected 5.3 double faults

Probability distribution for the double faults Adolfo Daniel Vallejo serves in this match.
Gael Monfils

Expected 6.0 double faults

Probability distribution for the double faults Gael Monfils serves in this match.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

39.7% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Adolfo Daniel Vallejo's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (29.0%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Adolfo Daniel Vallejo's perspective. Format: BO5.

Final Prediction

Monfils earns the narrow edge primarily because of the model key factor of recent record by level and a slightly better surface fit. Watch Vallejo's return game as a decisive element, given his higher mean return index and the potential to turn a tight match in his favor.

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