Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 16

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Holger Rune Prediction

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Rank: #37
40%
VS

Holger Rune

Rank: #11
60%
Predicted Games Played: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Holger Rune

Ranking Trends

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

  • Current Rank: #37 (2025-09-29)
  • 3 Months Ago: #36 (2025-06-30)
  • 6 Months Ago: #31 (2025-03-31)
  • 9 Months Ago: #31 (2024-12-30)
  • 12 Months Ago: #50 (2024-09-30)

Holger Rune

  • Current Rank: #11 (2025-09-29)
  • 3 Months Ago: #8 (2025-06-30)
  • 6 Months Ago: #12 (2025-03-31)
  • 9 Months Ago: #13 (2024-12-30)
  • 12 Months Ago: #14 (2024-09-30)

Player Metrics

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Form Index: 47.4
ELO Rating: 1083.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1540.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 184.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.6
Clay: 10.6
Grass: 13.2
Serve Rating: 99.2
Return Rating: 82.6

Holger Rune

Form Index: 59.8
ELO Rating: 1821.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1817.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 200.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.8
Clay: 20.6
Grass: 21.9
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 85.0

Recent Matches

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Taylor Fritz (2-0) hard Shanghai 85 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Luca Nardi (2-0) hard Shanghai 99 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Musetti (1-2) hard Beijing 144 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Shevchenko (1-2) hard Chengdu 134 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Filip Misolic (2-1) hard Chengdu 104 min

Holger Rune
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Humbert (2-0) hard Shanghai 94 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Baez (2-0) hard Shanghai 106 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jenson Brooksby (0-2) hard Tokio 90 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Ethan Quinn (2-0) hard Tokio 73 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Hamad Medjedovic (2-0) hard Tokio 101 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
vs
1
Holger Rune
Hard
1 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the Shanghai Masters 1000 tournament, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard will face Holger Rune on hard courts in China. The predicted outcome leans towards Rune, who has a probability of winning at 59.53% compared to Mpetshi Perricard's 40.47%. The anticipated total number of games in this match is 24.0.

Match Analysis

Holger Rune, currently ranked 11, boasts a strong form index of 59.80 and an Elo rating of 1821.91, indicating his solid performance in recent competitions. His fatigue level stands at 200 minutes, which is higher than Mpetshi Perricard's 184 minutes, but Rune's surface strength index of 14.77 indicates he is particularly adept on hard courts. In contrast, Mpetshi Perricard ranks 37th with a form index of 47.40 and an Elo rating of 1083.33. His mean serve index of 99.17 exceeds Rune's 95.38 by over 5 points, suggesting that Perricard has a slightly more potent serve, while Rune possesses a superior mean return index of 85.05, which is also over 5 points higher than Perricard's 82.55. Both players have shown strong performances in their recent matches. Mpetshi Perricard won his last two matches in Shanghai against Taylor Fritz and Luca Nardi without dropping a set, showcasing his current form. On the other hand, Holger Rune also emerged victorious in his last two matches against Ugo Humbert and Sebastian Baez, exhibiting a similar level of dominance. However, Rune's loss to Jenson Brooksby in Tokyo indicates a more inconsistent period compared to Perricard's recent success.

Final Prediction

Holger Rune's higher ranking, superior Elo rating, and better overall performance on hard surfaces give him a distinct edge in this matchup. A key factor to watch will be how effectively Perricard can leverage his stronger serve against Rune's formidable return game throughout the match.