Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Hamad Medjedovic vs Valentin Royer: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Hamad Medjedovic

Rank: #67
66%
VS

Valentin Royer

Rank: #71
34%
Expected Total Games: 27.1
Predicted Winner: Hamad Medjedovic

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Ranking Trends

Hamad Medjedovic

  • Current #67 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #80 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #65 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #72 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #72 2025-05-05

Valentin Royer

  • Current #71 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #56 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #56 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #104 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #117 2025-05-05

Player Metrics

Hamad Medjedovic

Form Index: 42.6
ELO Rating: 1683.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1747.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 20.6
Clay: 22.9
Grass: 7.4
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 91.2

Valentin Royer

Form Index: 21.6
ELO Rating: 1473.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1383.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.0
Clay: 9.0
Grass: 19.6
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 87.0

Recent Matches

Hamad Medjedovic
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Andrey Rublev (1-2) clay Barcelona 118 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Nuno Borges (2-0) clay Barcelona 94 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Alex de Minaur (2-0) clay Barcelona 95 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Marco Trungelliti (2-0) clay Barcelona 90 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Quentin Halys (2-1) clay Barcelona 122 min

Valentin Royer
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Hamad Medjedovic
vs
0
Valentin Royer
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the opening round at the Rome Masters 1000 on clay, Hamad Medjedovic meets Valentin Royer in the Round of 128 in Italy. The model favors Medjedovic to advance (66.10% chance) over Royer (33.90%), with an expected total of about 27.13 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Medjedovic comes in ranked 67 with an Elo of 1683.7 and a form index of 42.62. His surface strength index on clay (22.87) and strong return index (91.22) suggest comfort on slower courts, and he has no tournament fatigue recorded. Royer, ranked 71, posts a lower Elo (1473.03) and form index (21.57), with a surface strength index of 8.99 and no cumulative fatigue either. Both players show similar serving profiles—Medjedovic’s mean serve index is 96.60 and Royer’s is 95.73—so neither holds a large raw serving edge by the provided thresholds. Recent form separates them: Medjedovic reached late rounds in Barcelona, beating Nuno Borges and Alex de Minaur before a three-set loss to Andrey Rublev, showing resilience in clay matches. Royer arrives without a win in his last three listed outings, losing in Madrid to Alejandro Tabilo and earlier defeats in Miami and Indian Wells; those results underline the lower recent momentum and fewer deep runs.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 27.1 Most likely outcome: 27 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Hamad Medjedovic - Valentin Royer) +0.7 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this matchup is modest: the predicted aces total is 12.26 for the match. On clay, predicted aces are typically suppressed by the slower surface and higher bounce, and here that effect is reflected in the forecast. The double faults prediction sits at an expected double faults total of 5.93; longer rallies and physical demands on clay can elevate double faults, though neither player shows tournament fatigue before this match.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.3 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

44.9% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Hamad Medjedovic's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (41.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Medjedovic’s higher Elo, stronger recent results on clay and better form index give him the clear edge in this opening-round match. The key factor to watch will be Medjedovic’s return performance and ability to convert break chances on clay, which should determine whether the match stays short or extends toward the projected game total.

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