Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 64

Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Hubert Hurkacz

Rank: #78
31%
VS

Frances Tiafoe

Rank: #21
69%
Expected Total Games: 37.4
Predicted Winner: Frances Tiafoe

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Ranking Trends

Hubert Hurkacz

  • Current #78 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #73 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #73 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #68 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #28 2025-05-26

Frances Tiafoe

  • Current #21 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #28 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #30 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #17 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #16 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Hubert Hurkacz

Form Index: 39.8
ELO Rating: 1614.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1614.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.9
Clay: 24.8
Grass: 11.7
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 87.1

Frances Tiafoe

Form Index: 49.6
ELO Rating: 1801.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1835.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.1
Clay: 27.5
Grass: 15.9
Serve Rating: 94.7
Return Rating: 86.6

Recent Matches

Hubert Hurkacz
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Frances Tiafoe
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Eliot Spizzirri (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (0-2) clay Hamburg 113 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Diego Dedura (2-0) clay Hamburg 94 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Andrea Pellegrino (0-2) clay Rome 116 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Ignacio Buse (2-1) clay Rome 163 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Hubert Hurkacz
vs
0
Frances Tiafoe
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland Garros, Round of 64 in Paris on clay — a Grand Slam setting that rewards steady baseline play and physical resilience. Frances Tiafoe is the projected winner, with a 69.31% chance to progress against Hubert Hurkacz, who carries a 30.69% probability. The model expects a relatively long contest of about 37.41 total games.

Match Analysis

Tiafoe arrives with a clear ranking advantage (No. 21) over Hurkacz (No. 78), and his Elo (1801.11) and form index (49.62) both sit above Hurkacz’s Elo (1613.95) and form (39.84). Surface strength indices are low for both (Hurkacz 24.80, Tiafoe 27.52), reflecting that neither player is a clay specialist, while both show strong serve and return tools (serve indices: Hurkacz 96.31, Tiafoe 94.70; return indices: Hurkacz 87.15, Tiafoe 86.64). Both have identical tournament fatigue figures (174 minutes), so fresh legs should not be a differentiator. Recent results underline the contrast: Hurkacz’s Roland Garros opener was a 3-1 win over Jaume Munar, but he carries losses from Rome (to Yannick Hanfmann) and Madrid (to Lorenzo Musetti). Tiafoe also won his first Paris match 3-1 (Eliot Spizzirri), and his recent sequence includes a tight loss in Hamburg and a comfortable earlier win there; overall his last three matches show more positive momentum than Hurkacz’s clay swing.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.4 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Hubert Hurkacz - Frances Tiafoe) -1.4 Most likely spread: -2 (Frances Tiafoe wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 18.73 total, while the predicted double faults sit at 5.83. On clay, the slower ball and higher bounce typically suppress serving speed after the bounce, so the predicted aces are tempered compared with faster surfaces; this is reflected in the predicted aces figure. Expected double faults are moderate and could rise if rallies extend and fatigue sets in late; neither player’s serve rating is markedly higher to suggest a lopsided ace count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 18.7 Most likely: 18 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.8 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

54.9% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Hubert Hurkacz's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (36.1%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tiafoe’s higher Elo, stronger recent form and marginally better tournament momentum give him the edge on clay in this Round of 64 encounter. Watch the serve-versus-return battles early — whoever holds serve comfortably in the opening sets should dictate the tempo and likely decide the match.

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