Novak Djokovic vs Jack Draper: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Djokovic arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 3) with a very strong Elo (4,908.6) and a form index of 66.95, but he has accumulated 254 minutes on court in this event, indicating noticeable fatigue. His surface strength index on hard is 37.12 and his mean serve index sits at 51.60, while his mean return index is 42.15. Draper, ranked 14 with an Elo of 2,863.4 and a form index of 62.50, has logged 183 minutes so far — considerably less court time than Djokovic — and a lower surface strength index of 25.80. The mean serve and return indices paint a clear contrast: Draper’s serve index is 97.61 versus Djokovic’s 51.60 (a difference well above 5 points), and his return index is 89.84 versus Djokovic’s 42.15 (also a large gap). Those disparities are significant for how the match will unfold. Recent form reflects that Djokovic has ground out two long three-set wins in this tournament (132 and 122 minutes) and suffered a four-set loss in his previous major outing; Draper has been sharper in the last three outings here, with straight-set victories including a quick 78-minute win and a solid three-set performance earlier. The combination of Draper’s powerful serve/return profile and the fatigue Djokovic carries helps explain why Draper is favored despite Djokovic’s higher ranking and Elo.