Hamburg Germany Clay Atp 500 Round of 32

Jakub Mensik vs Jan-Lennard Struff: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jakub Mensik

Rank: #28
73%
VS

Jan-Lennard Struff

Rank: #83
27%
Expected Total Games: 28.7
Predicted Winner: Jakub Mensik

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Ranking Trends

Jakub Mensik

  • Current #28 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #16 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #19 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #16 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #19 2025-05-19

Jan-Lennard Struff

  • Current #83 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #77 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #84 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #145 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #86 2025-05-19

Player Metrics

Jakub Mensik

Form Index: 34.9
ELO Rating: 1786.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1863.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.6
Clay: 25.4
Grass: 21.5
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 91.0

Jan-Lennard Struff

Form Index: 31.0
ELO Rating: 1515.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1521.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.8
Clay: 12.7
Grass: 19.3
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 86.6

Recent Matches

Jakub Mensik
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Jan-Lennard Struff
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jakub Mensik
vs
0
Jan-Lennard Struff
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Hamburg 500-level event in Germany, Jakub Mensik and Jan-Lennard Struff meet in the round of 32 on clay. The model favors Mensik, projecting a 73.46% chance of victory to Struff’s 26.54%, with a predicted total of about 28.7 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Mensik enters this match as the higher-ranked player (No. 28) with a substantially higher Elo (1786.5 vs 1515.0) and a stronger surface strength index (25.40 to 12.75), suggesting greater comfort on clay. His form index (34.86) is slightly ahead of Struff’s (30.96). Both arrive with no tournament fatigue on record. Serve metrics are close: Mensik’s mean serve index is 96.06 and Struff’s 94.93 — a narrow margin that does not represent a clear serving dominance. Return numbers also sit near each other (Mensik 91.04, Struff 86.60), again indicating Mensik’s slight edge rather than a decisive gap. Recent results reinforce the projection. Mensik has one strong win (2-0 over Khachanov in Madrid) and two tight three-set losses on clay to Zverev and Popyrin, showing he can extend rallies and handle the surface in long matches. Struff’s recent slate includes a comeback win over Comesana but straight-set defeats to Lehecka and Michelsen; his results on clay this spring have been mixed and less consistent than Mensik’s.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 28.7 Most likely outcome: 29 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jakub Mensik - Jan-Lennard Struff) +2.6 Most likely spread: +2 (Jakub Mensik wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is about 17.9 total and the predicted aces reflect both players’ solid serve profiles. Expected double faults sit at roughly 6.3 for the match. On clay, the slower surface typically lowers ace counts and can increase pressure on serve, which supports this aces prediction and the expected double faults. Neither player holds a markedly superior serve rating that would dramatically raise the ace tally.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 17.9 Most likely: 17 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.3 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

47.3% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jakub Mensik's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (45.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Mensik’s higher ranking, superior Elo and better clay comfort give him the clear edge in this matchup. The key factor to watch will be his ability to convert returns into early breaks and keep points long enough to exploit Struff’s less robust clay numbers.

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