Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Mensik comes mainly from his recent record by level and overall strength — factors that reflect his deeper results against stronger opposition and a higher Elo. Mensik’s ranking (17) and Elo (1808.8) sit well above Atmane’s (rank 56, Elo 1665.5), and that gap is reflected in the model drivers: recent record by level (+7.8 points toward Mensik), overall strength (+3.8), surface fit (+3.9) and serve & return game (+3.4) all tilt toward him. Atmane, however, earns a counterweight from recent form (+6.5 toward Atmane) after impressive back-to-back Toronto wins. Looking at the underlying numbers, Mensik’s form index (53.08) slightly exceeds Atmane’s (48.24), and Mensik has lower cumulative fatigue this week (127 minutes versus Atmane’s 218), which may matter in a physical hard-court setting. Mensik also posts a higher surface strength index (37.59 to 29.70). Serve and return indices are nearly identical (mean serve: 96.23 vs 96.61; mean return: 86.91 vs 86.90), so neither player has a clear serving or returning edge on paper. Over their last three matches, Atmane is 2-1 in Toronto/Washington with wins over Jack Draper and Karen Khachanov and a loss to Alejandro Tabilo, while Mensik is also 2-1 with wins over Jacob Fearnley and Trevor Svajda and a loss to Brandon Nakashima.