Wimbledon Great Britain Grass Grand Slam Round of 64

James Duckworth vs Flavio Cobolli: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

James Duckworth

Rank: #79
19%
VS

Flavio Cobolli

Rank: #10
81%
Expected Total Games: 37.2
Predicted Winner: Flavio Cobolli

Why the Model Favors Flavio Cobolli

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +8.2 Flavio Cobolli
Surface fit +7.9 Flavio Cobolli
Serve & return game +6.6 James Duckworth
Recent record by level +5.8 Flavio Cobolli
Recent form +4.6 Flavio Cobolli

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 81% for Flavio Cobolli. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

James Duckworth

  • Current #79 2026-06-29
  • 3 mo ago #95 2026-03-30
  • 6 mo ago #87 2025-12-29
  • 9 mo ago #103 2025-09-29
  • 12 mo ago #103 2025-06-30

Flavio Cobolli

  • Current #10 2026-06-29
  • 3 mo ago #13 2026-03-30
  • 6 mo ago #22 2025-12-29
  • 9 mo ago #22 2025-09-29
  • 12 mo ago #24 2025-06-30

Player Metrics

James Duckworth

Form Index: 33.2
ELO Rating: 1516.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1476.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.2
Clay: 9.6
Grass: 12.8
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 90.4

Flavio Cobolli

Form Index: 63.2
ELO Rating: 1906.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1851.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.6
Clay: 39.9
Grass: 29.1
Serve Rating: 95.0
Return Rating: 86.5

Recent Matches

James Duckworth
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Tallon Griekspoor (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Giles Hussey (0-2) grass Eastbourne 79 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Aleksandar Vukic (0-2) grass London 58 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jiri Lehecka (1-2) grass Stuttgart 146 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Diego Dedura (2-0) grass Stuttgart 73 min

Flavio Cobolli
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
James Duckworth
vs
0
Flavio Cobolli
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Wimbledon, Great Britain — Round of 64 on grass at a Grand Slam sees James Duckworth face Flavio Cobolli. The model backs Cobolli to advance (80.54% chance) over Duckworth (19.46%), with a projected total of about 37.2 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Cobolli comes mainly from overall strength and surface fit, with those two factors contributing the largest lifts toward him. Cobolli arrives as world No. 10 with an Elo of 1906 and a solid form index (63.25), while his surface strength index (29.12) and recent results on grass underpin the surface-fit advantage. Duckworth, ranked 79 with an Elo of 1516, brings a lower form index (33.19) but one standout strength: his serve-and-return profile nudges the outlook toward him in the model’s serve & return component. Both players show equal cumulative fatigue from the tournament so far (174 minutes on court). Duckworth posts higher proprietary serve (96.60) and return (90.43) indices than Cobolli’s serve (94.96) and return (86.51), but the gaps are modest and not decisive. Recent results tell a complementary story: Duckworth’s last match was a big 3–1 win over Tallon Griekspoor at Wimbledon after two earlier losses on grass, while Cobolli also reached this round following a 3–1 win over Mariano Navone and mixed results at Halle and Roland Garros.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.2 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (James Duckworth - Flavio Cobolli) -5.3 Most likely spread: -6 (Flavio Cobolli wins 6 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at roughly 19.9 for the match and the double faults prediction at about 8.08. On fast grass, the predicted aces reflect the surface’s boost to big serving; the predicted aces figure should be expected to skew higher than on slower courts. Neither player has a dramatically superior serve index, so the predicted aces split should be relatively even, while the expected double faults remain moderate given both have reliable serving profiles.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 19.9 Most likely: 19 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 8.1 Most likely: 8 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

45.7% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (James Duckworth's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (42.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Cobolli’s clear advantage comes from overall strength — the top model key factor — and a better recent fit to grass, which outweighs Duckworth’s marginal serve/return edge. Watch Cobolli’s ability to convert shorter points on serve; that will be the decisive factor in turning his advantage into a straight-forward win.

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