Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

James Duckworth vs Jannik Sinner: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

James Duckworth

Rank: #86
7%
VS

Jannik Sinner

Rank: #2
93%
Expected Total Games: 36.1
Predicted Winner: Jannik Sinner

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Ranking Trends

James Duckworth

  • Current #86 2026-01-12
  • 3 mo ago #108 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #108 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #89 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #89 2025-01-13

Jannik Sinner

  • Current #2 2026-01-12
  • 3 mo ago #2 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #1 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #1 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #1 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

James Duckworth

Form Index: 61.1
ELO Rating: 738.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1565.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.0
Clay: 4.4
Grass: 4.9
Serve Rating: 80.4
Return Rating: 54.2

Jannik Sinner

Form Index: 89.0
ELO Rating: 11500.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2683.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 100.0
Clay: 100.0
Grass: 100.0
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 96.7

Recent Matches

James Duckworth
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Dino Prizmic (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Machac (0-2) hard Adelaide 71 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alex Michelsen (1-2) hard Brisbane 146 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Terence Atmane (2-0) hard Brisbane 89 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Tristan Schoolkate (2-0) hard Brisbane 71 min

Jannik Sinner
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
James Duckworth
vs
0
Jannik Sinner
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match in the Round of 64 at the Australian Open pits James Duckworth against Jannik Sinner on hard courts in Australia. With Sinner currently ranked 2nd and Duckworth at 86th, the prediction heavily favors Sinner, who has a 92.80% probability of winning compared to Duckworth's 7.20%. The expected total games for this match is approximately 36.13, indicating a potentially competitive match despite the disparity in rankings.

Match Analysis

Jannik Sinner’s remarkable form index of 88.98 and an Elo rating of 11500 clearly showcase his prowess on the court. His surface strength index of 100.00 and a mean serve index of 97.16 provide him with a significant advantage over Duckworth, whose mean serve index is 80.43. This 16.73-point difference in serving ability could lead to a dominant serving performance from Sinner. Duckworth, on the other hand, has a form index of 61.07 and an Elo rating of 738.59, indicating a less consistent performance lately. Both players have the same cumulative fatigue level of 174.0 minutes, which could play a role in their endurance during the match. In their recent performances, Sinner has been in strong form, winning his last three matches without dropping a set, while Duckworth has struggled, winning only one out of his last three matches. Duckworth's victory came in a five-set match against Dino Prizmic, demonstrating his resilience. However, Sinner's confidence and momentum from his recent victories are likely to overwhelm Duckworth.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 36.1 Most likely outcome: 36 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (James Duckworth - Jannik Sinner) -0.6 Most likely spread: -1 (Jannik Sinner wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature around 10.95 aces and 5.02 double faults. Given the medium-paced nature of hard courts, both players should find a balance between powerful serving and effective returning. Sinner's superior mean serve index suggests that he could contribute significantly to the expected aces prediction, while Duckworth's lower serve rating may lead to a higher likelihood of double faults compared to Sinner.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.9 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.0 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Jannik Sinner's edge stems from his superior serve and return capabilities, alongside his current form and mental momentum. A critical factor to watch will be how well Duckworth copes with Sinner's pressure on serve, as this will likely dictate the flow of the match and determine its outcome.

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