Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model's edge for Arnaldi comes mainly from his recent record by level, with that factor contributing the largest move toward him. Arnaldi is ranked 34, with a form index of 36.40 and an Elo of 1653.94. He arrives with no tournament fatigue and a surface strength index of 12.54. Duckworth sits at rank 79, with a higher form index of 47.73 and Elo of 1626.69, also showing no accumulated fatigue and a surface strength index of 20.25. Age also nudges the prediction toward Arnaldi by 4.7 percentage points, while surface fit adds a smaller advantage for him by 2.2 points. Serve and return trends give Duckworth some counterweight. The serve and return game factor moved 4.8 points toward Duckworth in the model. Both players have similar mean serve indices (Arnaldi 95.42, Duckworth 95.80), so a big serve gap is not present. Arnaldi does have the better mean return index (88.17 versus 84.74), which supports the model emphasis on his recent level results. Over their last three matches Arnaldi is 1-2 with a hard court win in Toronto and two recent losses in Toronto and Cincinnati. Duckworth is 2-1 in his last three, with wins in Winston Salem including a long 150 minute match and a quicker loss in a shorter match.