Dubai U.A.E. Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jan-Lennard Struff

Rank: #80
20%
VS

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #10
80%
Expected Total Games: 23.7
Predicted Winner: Alexander Bublik

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Ranking Trends

Jan-Lennard Struff

  • Current #80 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #84 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #144 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #87 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #46 2025-02-24

Alexander Bublik

  • Current #10 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #11 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #24 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #62 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #51 2025-02-24

Player Metrics

Jan-Lennard Struff

Form Index: 39.3
ELO Rating: 628.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1612.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 165.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.4
Clay: 5.0
Grass: 7.5
Serve Rating: 69.8
Return Rating: 41.8

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 70.8
ELO Rating: 2972.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1667.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.9
Clay: 23.7
Grass: 24.8
Serve Rating: 98.1
Return Rating: 87.8

Recent Matches

Jan-Lennard Struff
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Otto Virtanen (1-2) hard Dubai 125 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Abdulrahman Al Janahi (1-0) hard Dubai 40 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Bublik (1-2) hard Rotterdam 125 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Grenier (1-0) hard Rotterdam 64 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Vit Kopriva (2-3) hard Australian Open 174 min

Alexander Bublik
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (0-2) hard Rotterdam 54 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jaume Munar (2-1) hard Rotterdam 162 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jan-Lennard Struff (2-1) hard Rotterdam 125 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Hubert Hurkacz (2-1) hard Rotterdam 142 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jan-Lennard Struff
vs
1
Alexander Bublik
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the round of 32 in Dubai (U.A.E.), on outdoor hard courts at a 500-level event, Jan-Lennard Struff meets Alexander Bublik. The model strongly favors Bublik — 80.49% to win versus 19.51% for Struff — with a projected total of about 23.74 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Struff arrives ranked 80 with an Elo of 628.18 and a form index of 39.30. He carries 165 minutes of court time in this tournament, which is notable on the fatigue front, and posts a modest surface strength index (6.39). His mean serve index (69.80) is solid but well below Bublik’s, and his mean return index (41.83) leaves room for improvement against top servers. Recent results show a win over Abdulrahman Al Janahi in a short match and two three-set losses: one here in Dubai to Otto Virtanen (1-2, 125 minutes) and an earlier 1-2 loss to Bublik in Rotterdam. Bublik is the higher-ranked player at 10 with a much stronger Elo (2972.45) and a form index of 70.83. He arrives with no added fatigue from this event and a higher surface strength index (19.86). The serve/return gap is large: Bublik’s mean serve index (98.08) and mean return index (87.80) both exceed Struff’s by more than five points, a factor likely to shape rallies and service holds. His recent string includes a win over Struff in Rotterdam and a long three-set victory over Jaume Munar, plus a straight-sets loss to Felix Auger-Aliassime.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.7 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jan-Lennard Struff - Alexander Bublik) +0.3 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match sits at 16.86 total, with a double faults prediction of 5.74 expected double faults overall. Hard courts typically produce a moderate ace count, and Bublik’s much higher serve rating should drive the predicted aces total—expect him to account for the bulk of the predicted aces. The expected double faults figure reflects some risk from aggressive serving but remains moderate for this surface.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.9 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Bublik’s superior Elo, form and overwhelming serve/return indices give him a clear edge, amplified by Struff’s accumulated fatigue. The key factor to watch is whether Bublik’s serve can consistently force short points and prevent long returns from Struff.

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