Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Dalibor Svrcina vs Jannik Sinner: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Dalibor Svrcina

Rank: #123
12%
VS

Jannik Sinner

Rank: #2
88%
Expected Total Games: 22.6
Predicted Winner: Jannik Sinner

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Ranking Trends

Dalibor Svrcina

  • Current #123 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #96 2025-12-01
  • 6 mo ago #97 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #127 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #164 2025-03-03

Jannik Sinner

  • Current #2 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #2 2025-12-01
  • 6 mo ago #1 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #1 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #1 2025-03-03

Player Metrics

Dalibor Svrcina

Form Index: 48.9
ELO Rating: 693.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1535.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 307.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.7
Clay: 4.1
Grass: 5.1
Serve Rating: 55.0
Return Rating: 77.0

Jannik Sinner

Form Index: 70.3
ELO Rating: 11244.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2668.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 97.7
Clay: 100.0
Grass: 100.0
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 91.0

Recent Matches

Dalibor Svrcina
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Jannik Sinner
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jakub Mensik (1-2) hard Doha 131 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alexei Popyrin (2-0) hard Doha 84 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Machac (2-0) hard Doha 70 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Novak Djokovic (2-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Ben Shelton (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Dalibor Svrcina
vs
0
Jannik Sinner
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Indian Wells in California, Round of 64 on outdoor hard courts at a Masters 1000 event, Jannik Sinner is strongly favored to advance. The model gives Sinner an 87.59% chance of winning versus Dalibor Svrcina at 12.41%, with a projected total of about 22.55 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The raw profiles underline a clear mismatch on paper. Sinner is ranked No. 2 with an Elo of 11,244, a surface strength index of 97.75 and a form index of 70.34; he arrives with zero tournament fatigue. Svrcina sits at No. 123, Elo 693.17, a surface strength index of 3.74 and a form index of 48.95, and has accumulated 307 minutes on court in this event. The gap in serve and return tools is striking: Sinner’s mean serve index (96.86) dwarfs Svrcina’s (55.01) by more than 40 points, and Sinner’s mean return index (90.97) is also markedly higher than Svrcina’s (76.96). Svrcina does bring momentum here, having won three straight matches at Indian Wells in straight sets (durations 108, 108 and 91 minutes), showing he has handled the conditions and is battle-tested in the draw. Sinner’s recent sequence from Doha is solid overall but includes a recent three-set loss (131 minutes) to Jakub Mensik; otherwise he posted convincing straight-set wins in earlier matches. Those form lines favor Sinner’s superior all-court game and freshness.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.6 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Dalibor Svrcina - Jannik Sinner) +1.8 Most likely spread: +2 (Dalibor Svrcina wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the contest is relatively high: predicted aces for the match are about 15.91, reflecting Sinner’s elite serve on a medium-paced hard court. Given the surface, expected double faults remain moderate; the model’s expected double faults total is 5.94. With Sinner’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute the bulk of the predicted aces, while Svrcina’s lower serve index suggests fewer free points from his service games.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.9 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Sinner’s combination of elite serve, return numbers and negligible fatigue gives him the decisive edge in this matchup. The key factor to watch will be Sinner’s serve efficiency—if he converts free points and avoids extended baseline exchanges, the match should stay short and fall in line with the projection.

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