Doha Qatar Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Tomas Machac vs Jannik Sinner: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Tomas Machac

Rank: #31
17%
VS

Jannik Sinner

Rank: #2
83%
Expected Total Games: 22.6
Predicted Winner: Jannik Sinner

Ranking Trends

Tomas Machac

  • Current Rank: #31 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #32 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #22 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #21 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #24 (2025-02-17)

Jannik Sinner

  • Current Rank: #2 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #2 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #1 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #1 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #1 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Tomas Machac

Form Index: 47.9
ELO Rating: 1411.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1694.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.6
Clay: 10.0
Grass: 10.4
Serve Rating: 58.4
Return Rating: 43.7

Jannik Sinner

Form Index: 94.8
ELO Rating: 11372.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2676.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 98.9
Clay: 100.0
Grass: 100.0
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 91.7

Recent Matches

Tomas Machac
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Gea (1-1) hard Montpellier 75 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Musetti (2-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Grigor Dimitrov (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Humbert (2-1) hard Adelaide 143 min

Jannik Sinner
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Novak Djokovic (2-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Ben Shelton (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Luciano Darderi (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Eliot Spizzirri (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs James Duckworth (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tomas Machac
vs
0
Jannik Sinner
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 matchup in Doha, Qatar (hard court, 500-level) pits Tomas Machac against Jannik Sinner. The model strongly favors Sinner (83.08% win probability) over Machac (16.92%), with a predicted total of about 22.6 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Sinner arrives as the higher-ranked and hotter player on paper: world No. 2 with a form index of 94.78 and an Elo listed at 11,372, while Machac sits at No. 31 with a form index of 47.89 and an Elo around 1,412. Both show zero recorded fatigue in this event. Surface strength is heavily in Sinner’s favor (98.87 vs Machac’s 11.57). There are large gaps in both serve and return: Sinner’s mean serve index (96.78) exceeds Machac’s (58.43) by more than 5 points, and his mean return index (91.74) similarly dwarfs Machac’s (43.73). Those disparities point to Sinner controlling both service games and return opportunities. Looking at recent form over the last three matches, Machac is 1–2: a win over Stefanos Tsitsipas (3–1 sets) at the Australian Open, then a five-set loss to Lorenzo Musetti and a straight-loss in Montpellier. His recent matches include long encounters (two 174-minute matches). Sinner is 2–1 in his last three, with comprehensive wins over Ben Shelton and Luciano Darderi (3–0 sets each) before a five-set defeat to Novak Djokovic; his match durations include extended battles as well. The pattern shows Sinner maintaining high-level winning form while Machac has been more inconsistent.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.6 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is modestly high with a predicted aces total of 8.89, and the double faults prediction is 6.37 expected double faults. Hard courts are medium-paced with a consistent bounce, so they typically produce a moderate number of aces relative to grass or clay; Sinner’s much higher serve rating suggests he will contribute the bulk of the predicted aces. The expected double faults reflect some risk on serve from both players across what is forecast to be a relatively short match.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.9 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Sinner’s superior form, striking edges in serve and return indices, and virtually complete surface strength advantage explain the clear projection in his favor. The key factor to watch is Sinner’s serve/return dominance—if he converts that edge early, the match is likely to follow the low-game total forecast.

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