Auckland New Zealand Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Jenson Brooksby vs Sebastian Baez Prediction

Jenson Brooksby

Rank: #49
66%
VS

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #43
34%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Jenson Brooksby

Player Metrics

Jenson Brooksby

Form Index: 51.2
ELO Rating: 1017.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1674.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 86
Surface Strength:
Hard: 32.2
Clay: 26.9
Grass: 28.8
Serve Rating: 35.9
Return Rating: 81.1

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 30.2
ELO Rating: 1147.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1670.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 143
Surface Strength:
Hard: 27.6
Clay: 24.8
Grass: 29.6
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 98.4

Recent Matches

Jenson Brooksby

  • Last Match: vs James Watt (2-0) hard Auckland 86 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Botic van de Zandschulp (1-2) hard Paris 122 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (1-2) hard Basel 167 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alexandre Muller (2-0) hard Basel 67 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Tallon Griekspoor (1-2) hard Shanghai 106 min

Sebastian Baez

  • Last Match: vs Emilio Nava (2-1) hard Auckland 143 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Cameron Norrie (0-2) hard Paris 84 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Reilly Opelka (0-2) hard Basel 72 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Valentin Royer (0-2) hard Brussels 74 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Holger Rune (0-2) hard Shanghai 106 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jenson Brooksby
vs
0
Sebastian Baez
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the Auckland tournament in New Zealand, Jenson Brooksby faces off against Sebastian Baez on hard court. The prediction favors Brooksby with a winning probability of 65.62%, while Baez is given a 34.38% chance of victory. The anticipated total number of games played in this match is 22.0.

Match Analysis

Currently ranked 49, Jenson Brooksby holds a form index of 51.22 and an Elo rating of 1017.16. He has a cumulative fatigue of 86 minutes from the current tournament, which is relatively manageable. His surface strength index stands at 32.24, while his mean serve index is 35.88 and mean return index is a strong 81.06. In contrast, Sebastian Baez, ranked 43, showcases a lower form index of 30.19 and a higher Elo rating of 1147.30. However, he has accumulated more fatigue at 143 minutes, indicating a more taxing tournament experience. His surface strength index is 27.60, and he features an impressive mean serve index of 97.40 alongside a superb mean return index of 98.44. Notably, there's a significant difference in serve index, with Baez holding an advantage of over 5 points. In their recent performances, Brooksby has had mixed results, winning his last match against James Watt convincingly (2-0 in sets) but losing the two prior matches in tighter contests. Baez, on the other hand, rebounded with a win against Emilio Nava in his last outing, showcasing resilience after earlier defeats to Cameron Norrie and Reilly Opelka. This recent form could play a crucial role in the upcoming match.

Final Prediction

Jenson Brooksby appears to have a slight edge with a higher form index and a notably stronger return game, which could be pivotal against Baez. The key factor to observe will be how fatigue affects both players, particularly Baez, and whether Brooksby can capitalize on this to secure his victory.