Dubai U.A.E. Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Zizou Bergs vs Jenson Brooksby: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Zizou Bergs

Rank: #46
47%
VS

Jenson Brooksby

Rank: #49
53%
Expected Total Games: 24.3
Predicted Winner: Jenson Brooksby

Ranking Trends

Zizou Bergs

  • Current Rank: #46 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #43 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #48 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #50 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #56 (2025-02-24)

Jenson Brooksby

  • Current Rank: #49 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #53 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #92 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #161 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #1098 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Zizou Bergs

Form Index: 31.2
ELO Rating: 1065.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1575.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.4
Clay: 8.8
Grass: 8.9
Serve Rating: 79.3
Return Rating: 59.7

Jenson Brooksby

Form Index: 10.8
ELO Rating: 1005.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1427.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.9
Clay: 10.2
Grass: 10.3
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 92.4

Recent Matches

Zizou Bergs
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jiri Lehecka (0-2) hard Doha 69 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (2-1) hard Doha 135 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Hamad Medjedovic (0-2) hard Rotterdam 139 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Hubert Hurkacz (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) hard Paris 87 min

Jenson Brooksby
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jiri Lehecka (0-2) hard Doha 82 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Tommy Paul (1-2) hard Dallas 142 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Bublik (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Baez (0-2) hard Auckland 87 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs James Watt (2-0) hard Auckland 86 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Zizou Bergs
vs
0
Jenson Brooksby
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This is a round-of-32 match in Dubai, U.A.E., on hard courts at a 500-level event. Jenson Brooksby is the narrow favorite to win: predicted winner Jenson Brooksby (52.67%) versus Zizou Bergs (47.33%), with an expected total of about 24.29 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Zizou Bergs (rank 46) arrives with a form index of 31.23 and an Elo of 1065.28; his fatigue is minimal (0 minutes on court) and his hard-court surface strength index is 8.38. Bergs posts a mean serve index of 79.35 and a mean return index of 59.70. Jenson Brooksby (rank 49) has a lower form index (10.75) and an Elo of 1005.18, also with no tournament fatigue and a surface strength index of 9.87. Brooksby’s mean serve index (97.30) substantially exceeds Bergs’ by roughly 18 points, and his mean return index (92.41) is also markedly higher by about 32 points; both differences are large enough to be influential on serve/return dynamics. Recent results show Bergs with one win and two losses across his last three matches: a win over Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in Doha (135 minutes) and losses to Jiri Lehecka (69 minutes) and Hamad Medjedovic (139 minutes). Brooksby has struggled for wins in his last three outings: losses to Jiri Lehecka in Doha (82 minutes), Tommy Paul in Dallas (142 minutes), and Alexander Bublik at the Australian Open (174 minutes). Those patterns indicate Bergs has had a more recent victory while Brooksby carries stronger serve/return metrics despite poorer recent outcomes.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.3 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this contest is 16.46 total aces, and the double faults prediction is 5.44 expected double faults. On medium-paced hard courts, predicted aces are moderate compared with faster surfaces; the expected double faults reflect a modest error rate. Because Brooksby’s serve index is significantly higher, he is likely to contribute a larger share of the predicted aces, which should push the total aces figure upward.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.5 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.4 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Brooksby’s edge comes from substantially superior serve and return indices, giving him a narrow probabilistic advantage despite lower form and Elo. The key factor to watch is how effectively Brooksby converts his serve/return strength into free points and whether Bergs can neutralize that with service holds.

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