Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 64

Federico Cina vs Jesper de Jong: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Federico Cina

Rank: #216
32%
VS

Jesper de Jong

Rank: #109
68%
Expected Total Games: 40.8
Predicted Winner: Jesper de Jong

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Federico Cina

  • Current #216 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #223 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #234 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #210 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #294 2025-05-26

Jesper de Jong

  • Current #109 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #89 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #76 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #83 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #88 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Federico Cina

Form Index: 57.9
ELO Rating: 1622.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1590.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.9
Clay: 15.9
Grass: 6.5
Serve Rating: 94.6
Return Rating: 91.9

Jesper de Jong

Form Index: 35.5
ELO Rating: 1570.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1495.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.8
Clay: 18.8
Grass: 7.2
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 86.7

Recent Matches

Federico Cina
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Jesper de Jong
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Stan Wawrinka (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Michael Zheng (0-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Liam Draxl (2-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Nuno Borges (0-2) clay Rome 61 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Dellien (2-1) clay Rome 179 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Federico Cina
vs
0
Jesper de Jong
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Roland Garros in Paris, round of 64 on clay, Jesper de Jong is narrowly favored to advance in this grand slam encounter. The model gives de Jong a 67.65% chance to win versus Federico Cina at 32.35%, with a projected total of about 40.75 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Federico Cina arrives ranked 216 with an Elo of 1622.3 and a form index of 57.94; Jesper de Jong is ranked 109 with a slightly lower Elo of 1570.0 and a form index of 35.48. Both carry identical cumulative fatigue marks from the event (522 minutes), so neither has a clear freshness edge. On clay their surface strength indices are modest—Cina 15.85, de Jong 18.81—suggesting neither is a clay specialist, though de Jong’s figure is a touch higher. Their mean serve indices are essentially level (94.64 vs 94.89), so there’s no meaningful serving advantage; however Cina’s mean return index (91.92) is notably higher than de Jong’s (86.69), a difference greater than five points that gives Cina an edge when returning. Looking at recent results, Cina has been unbeaten across his last three Roland Garros matches here, beating Bernard Tomic (2-0 in sets), Alexis Galarneau (2-1) and a five-set win over Reilly Opelka in the previous round. De Jong’s form has been mixed: he beat Stan Wawrinka in the last match in four sets and Liam Draxl earlier, but had a straight-sets loss to Michael Zheng two rounds back.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 40.8 Most likely outcome: 40 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Federico Cina - Jesper de Jong) -1.9 Most likely spread: -2 (Jesper de Jong wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is moderate: the predicted aces total is 14.5. Given the clay surface, which tends to suppress serve speed after the bounce, this predicted aces figure is consistent with slower court conditions. The double faults prediction is 7.62 — expected double faults are higher on clay because longer rallies and fatigue can increase errors. Since neither player shows a markedly superior serve rating, no single player is expected to dominate the ace count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.5 Most likely: 14 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.6 Most likely: 7 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

45.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Federico Cina's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (33.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

De Jong’s higher ranking and marginally better surface index underpin his edge in the model, while Cina’s stronger return game is the primary counterweight. Watch the return games and how both handle extended rallies: that will likely decide whether this leans to a straight-set result or stretches toward the predicted ~41 games.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel