Jiri Lehecka vs Alexei Popyrin: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Lehecka comes mainly from his recent record by level and his superior surface fit; those two factors contribute the largest lift to his probability. Lehecka (rank 14) brings an Elo of 1760 and a higher form index (36.5) than Popyrin (rank 103, Elo 1559, form 24.1). Fatigue is neutral for both with no minutes logged in this event. Crucially, Lehecka’s surface strength index (25.98) is markedly higher than Popyrin’s (5.64), which supports the model’s surface-fit advantage on fast grass courts. Serve and return metrics also tilt toward Lehecka. Both players have strong serve profiles (mean serve indices 97.9 vs 96.3), so neither has a huge serving edge, but Lehecka’s mean return index (92.15) is about 9 points better than Popyrin’s (82.84), a meaningful gap on a surface where returns are at a premium. Recent form is mixed: Lehecka has two straight three-set defeats interspersed with a straight-sets win in his last three grass matches, while Popyrin arrives without a win in his last three outings, including two straight-sets losses on grass and a long defeat on clay.