Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Jiri Lehecka vs Arthur Gea: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Jiri Lehecka

Rank: #19
78%
VS

Arthur Gea

Rank: #241
22%
Expected Total Games: 39.1
Predicted Winner: Jiri Lehecka

Ranking Trends

Jiri Lehecka

  • Current Rank: #19 (2026-01-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #17 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #25 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #27 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #29 (2025-01-13)

Arthur Gea

  • Current Rank: #241 (2026-01-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #236 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #278 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #314 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #383 (2025-01-13)

Player Metrics

Jiri Lehecka

Form Index: 37.1
ELO Rating: 1986.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1690.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.4
Clay: 15.8
Grass: 17.5
Serve Rating: 77.3
Return Rating: 45.2

Arthur Gea

Form Index: 95.8
ELO Rating: 366.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1522.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.8
Clay: 5.8
Grass: 4.8
Serve Rating: 93.8
Return Rating: 92.8

Recent Matches

Jiri Lehecka
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Korda (1-1) hard Brisbane 46 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Machac (2-1) hard Brisbane 144 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (0-2) hard Basel 83 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (1-2) hard Brussels 154 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (2-0) hard Brussels 89 min

Arthur Gea
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Roman Andres Burruchaga (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Zdenek Kolar (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Titouan Droguet (1-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Blockx (2-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jiri Lehecka
vs
0
Arthur Gea
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The first-round match between Jiri Lehecka and Arthur Gea at the 2026 Australian Open is set to unfold on hard courts in Australia. Lehecka enters the contest as a strong favorite, with a 78.18% probability of victory compared to Gea's 21.82%. The expected total number of games in this match is approximately 39.1, indicating a potentially competitive encounter.

Match Analysis

Jiri Lehecka holds a rank of 19, showcasing a solid form index of 37.11 and an Elo rating of 1986.52. His fatigue level remains at 0.0, indicating he is fresh heading into this match. Additionally, his surface strength index of 12.40 and mean serve index of 77.26 highlight his capability on hard courts. In contrast, Arthur Gea, ranked 241, has an impressive form index of 95.83 but an Elo rating of just 366.37, indicating a significant disparity in experience and recent performance levels. Gea's fatigue is notably higher at 522.0 minutes, which could impact his performance. Lehecka's mean return index of 45.20 is lower than Gea's impressive 92.81, suggesting that Gea could capitalize on his return game if he can maintain consistency. Both players have shown varying performances in their last three matches, with Lehecka winning one out of three, while Gea has triumphed in all his recent matches, winning three in a row without dropping a set. This trend may provide Gea with a confidence boost, although Lehecka's overall form and ranking suggest he is the stronger competitor.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.1 Most likely outcome: 39 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature around 13.22 aces, with a projected 4.4 double faults. The hard court surface typically allows for a balanced number of aces compared to other surfaces, making it conducive for both powerful servers and adept returners. Given Lehecka's mean serve index, which is lower than Gea's by more than 5 points, it could influence the ace count, potentially favoring Gea's serving capabilities.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.2 Most likely: 13 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.4 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Jiri Lehecka's higher rank, lower fatigue, and overall match readiness give him a significant edge over Arthur Gea. However, Gea's recent form and superior return index suggest he could pose challenges if he capitalizes on his opportunities. A key factor to watch will be how Lehecka manages his serve against Gea's return game throughout the match.

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