Basel Switzerland Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Daniel Altmaier vs Jiri Lehecka Prediction

Daniel Altmaier

Rank: #60
25%
VS

Jiri Lehecka

Rank: #21
75%
Expected Total Games: 24.8
Predicted Winner: Jiri Lehecka

Why the Model Favors Jiri Lehecka

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +6.2 Jiri Lehecka
Overall strength +4.6 Jiri Lehecka
Surface fit +3.4 Jiri Lehecka
Overall record & opposition quality +2.3 Jiri Lehecka
Fatigue & recent workload +2.2 Jiri Lehecka

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 75% for Jiri Lehecka. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Daniel Altmaier

  • Current #60 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #62 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #55 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #44 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #50 2025-10-27

Jiri Lehecka

  • Current #21 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #12 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #14 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #19 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #18 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Daniel Altmaier

Form Index: 45.3
ELO Rating: 1622.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1640.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 368.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.2
Clay: 20.0
Grass: 10.1
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 86.8

Jiri Lehecka

Form Index: 45.4
ELO Rating: 1836.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1855.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 111.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 37.5
Clay: 28.5
Grass: 29.0
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 86.0

Recent Matches

Daniel Altmaier
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (2-1) hard Basel 160 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (0-2) hard Basel 106 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Henry Bernet (2-0) hard Basel 102 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Taylor Fritz (0-2) hard Marseille 85 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Borna Gojo (2-0) hard Marseille 81 min

Jiri Lehecka
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Daniel Altmaier
vs
0
Jiri Lehecka
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Jiri Lehecka is favored at 75% to Daniel Altmaier’s 25%, with 24.8 total games expected. In the Round of 16 in Basel, Lehecka’s stronger hard-court profile and lighter workload give him a clear advantage.

Match Analysis

Lehecka, ranked 21st to Altmaier’s 60th, has the stronger overall record and a more convincing fit for hard courts. Their general form is nearly level, so Lehecka’s advantage comes more from his higher level of play and surface credentials than from a major difference in recent form. Lehecka opened in Basel with a straight-sets win over Stan Wawrinka. Altmaier beat Juan Manuel Cerundolo after a 160-minute match, having lost to him earlier in the week. Altmaier has spent 368 minutes on court in the tournament, compared with Lehecka’s 111, a substantial workload gap.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.8 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Daniel Altmaier - Jiri Lehecka) -4.3 Most likely spread: -5 (Jiri Lehecka wins 5 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Lehecka is projected to hit 10.1 aces, compared with 7.2 for Altmaier, with 1.8 and 2.1 double faults respectively. Their serving profiles are similar, but Lehecka has a slight edge that fits the higher ace forecast.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.3 Most likely: 15 aces Per player: Daniel Altmaier 7.2 + Jiri Lehecka 10.1
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.9 Most likely: 2 double faults Per player: Daniel Altmaier 2.1 + Jiri Lehecka 1.8

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Daniel Altmaier

Expected 7.2 aces

Jiri Lehecka

Expected 10.1 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Daniel Altmaier

Expected 2.1 double faults

Jiri Lehecka

Expected 1.8 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

53.2% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Daniel Altmaier's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (48.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Altmaier’s slightly stronger return is his best counter to Lehecka’s serve advantage. If he can turn that into sustained pressure on Lehecka’s service games, he has a way to challenge the forecast.

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