Stuttgart Germany Grass Atp 250 Round of 16

Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jiri Lehecka

Rank: #12
79%
VS

James Duckworth

Rank: #79
21%
Expected Total Games: 26.7
Predicted Winner: Jiri Lehecka

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Player Metrics

Jiri Lehecka

Form Index: 37.3
ELO Rating: 1774.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1831.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 39.4
Clay: 29.2
Grass: 26.1
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 90.1

James Duckworth

Form Index: 23.8
ELO Rating: 1508.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1493.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 73.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.4
Clay: 9.6
Grass: 12.2
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 86.3

Recent Matches

Jiri Lehecka

  • Last Match: vs Pablo Carreno Busta (0-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Casper Ruud (0-2) clay Rome 79 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jan-Lennard Struff (2-0) clay Rome 84 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Arthur Fils (0-2) clay Madrid 74 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Lorenzo Musetti (2-0) clay Madrid 74 min

James Duckworth

  • Last Match: vs Diego Dedura (2-0) grass Stuttgart 73 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Rafael Jodar (1-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Laslo Djere (1-2) clay Geneva 119 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Edas Butvilas (0-2) clay Geneva 94 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Miguel Damas (2-1) clay Geneva 160 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jiri Lehecka
vs
0
James Duckworth
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Stuttgart, Germany — round of 16 on grass at an ATP 250 event sets up a contrasting clash between Jiri Lehecka and James Duckworth. The model strongly leans toward Jiri Lehecka, giving him a 79.18% chance to progress against Duckworth (20.82%), with a predicted total of about 26.7 games for the match.

Match Analysis

Lehecka arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 12) with an Elo of 1774.0 and a superior form index (37.26) compared with Duckworth’s rank 79, Elo 1508.5 and form index 23.85. Lehecka shows no accumulated fatigue from this event (0 minutes), while Duckworth carries 73 minutes on court — a small but measurable freshness gap in a compact grass schedule. On surface-specific measures Lehecka’s surface strength index (26.13) is notably higher than Duckworth’s (12.19), and Lehecka also posts particularly strong mean serve and return indices (96.63 and 90.14), indicating an all-around profile suited to fast conditions. Recent results underline contrasting momentum: Lehecka has one win and two losses in his last three matches, with his sole win coming in Rome while his most recent outings were tough matches on clay. Duckworth is coming off a straight-sets victory in Stuttgart and had mixed form on clay before that. The grass context favors effective serving and short-point aggression; Lehecka’s high return index paired with a powerful serve suggests he can both hold and pressurize Duckworth’s service games.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.7 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Jiri Lehecka versus James Duckworth. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Jiri Lehecka versus James Duckworth. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jiri Lehecka - James Duckworth) +3.0 Most likely spread: +3 (Jiri Lehecka wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Jiri Lehecka versus James Duckworth. Positive values indicate Jiri Lehecka winning more games, negative values indicate James Duckworth winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Jiri Lehecka versus James Duckworth. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this grass match is elevated: expected total aces are about 16.31. Predicted aces are supported by both players’ high serve indices and the naturally skid-low characteristics of grass. The expected double faults figure sits at 5.52 for the match — a moderate level given both players’ serving profiles. These numbers reflect grass’s tendency to boost ace counts while keeping double faults within a manageable range.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.3 Most likely: 16 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.5 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Jiri Lehecka versus James Duckworth. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Jiri Lehecka versus James Duckworth. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Jiri Lehecka versus James Duckworth. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Jiri Lehecka versus James Duckworth. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

48.9% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jiri Lehecka's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (49.8%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Jiri Lehecka's perspective. Format: BO3.

Final Prediction

Lehecka’s combination of higher rank, stronger Elo, superior surface index and robust return metric gives him the edge here. The key factor to watch will be who controls the short points on return games — that will likely decide whether this turns into a swift straight-sets win or a tighter, longer contest.

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