Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 64

Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jiri Lehecka: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jan-Lennard Struff

Rank: #83
15%
VS

Jiri Lehecka

Rank: #13
85%
Expected Total Games: 25.1
Predicted Winner: Jiri Lehecka

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Ranking Trends

Jan-Lennard Struff

  • Current #83 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #84 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #101 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #143 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #87 2025-05-05

Jiri Lehecka

  • Current #13 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #21 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #17 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #26 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #38 2025-05-05

Player Metrics

Jan-Lennard Struff

Form Index: 30.5
ELO Rating: 1522.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1528.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 81.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.8
Clay: 13.5
Grass: 19.3
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 92.0

Jiri Lehecka

Form Index: 52.3
ELO Rating: 1863.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1867.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 39.3
Clay: 33.9
Grass: 26.1
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 85.2

Recent Matches

Jan-Lennard Struff
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

Jiri Lehecka
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jan-Lennard Struff
vs
1
Jiri Lehecka
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 1

Key Prediction Insights

Rome, Italy — round of 64 at the clay Masters 1000 stage delivers a contrast in styles as Jan-Lennard Struff meets Jiri Lehecka. The model strongly leans toward Lehecka to advance (85.45%) with Struff rated at 14.55%; the match is projected to be fairly short by clay standards with an expected 25.15 total games.

Match Analysis

Lehecka arrives as the clear higher-ranked and higher-Elo player (rank 13, Elo 1863) compared with Struff (rank 83, Elo 1522). Lehecka’s form index (52.33) also outpaces Struff’s (30.51), and crucially Lehecka is fresh with zero minutes’ fatigue recorded this event while Struff has accumulated 81 minutes on court — a factor on slow, physically demanding clay. Surface strength favors Lehecka as well (33.90 vs Struff’s 13.53), suggesting better movement and comfort on clay courts. Serve numbers are almost identical, so neither should expect a big serving edge; however Struff’s mean return index (92.00) is meaningfully higher than Lehecka’s (85.24) by over 6 points, so he is better equipped to pressure Lehecka’s service games. Recent form adds context: Struff beat Francisco Comesana convincingly in Rome but was beaten by Alex Michelsen in Madrid and had a prior win over Alexandre Muller. Lehecka’s recent run in Madrid included wins over Alex Michelsen and Lorenzo Musetti before a loss to Arthur Fils, showing strong level against top opposition despite the last result.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.1 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jan-Lennard Struff - Jiri Lehecka) +1.6 Most likely spread: +1 (Jan-Lennard Struff wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction is modest: the predicted aces for the match sit at 5.2, reflecting clay’s tendency to reduce outright winners off the serve. The expected double faults total (4.12) is also realistic given longer rallies and possible fatigue for Struff. Because neither player posts a significantly higher serve rating, the predicted aces are driven more by surface than by a dominant server; the double faults prediction may skew toward Struff if his accumulated minutes erode serving consistency.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 5.2 Most likely: 5 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

33.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jan-Lennard Struff's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (62.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Lehecka’s superior ranking, Elo, fresher legs and better clay profile give him the clear edge in Rome. Watch first-serve percentage and how Lehecka handles Struff’s strong return game — breaking that rhythm is the key factor that will decide whether this stays short or stretches out.

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