Madrid Spain Clay Masters 1000 Round of 16

Jiri Lehecka vs Lorenzo Musetti: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jiri Lehecka

Rank: #14
48%
VS

Lorenzo Musetti

Rank: #9
52%
Expected Total Games: 23.9
Predicted Winner: Lorenzo Musetti

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Player Metrics

Jiri Lehecka

Form Index: 83.9
ELO Rating: 1861.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1861.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 214.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 62.0
Clay: 45.6
Grass: 45.6
Serve Rating: 83.9
Return Rating: 62.5

Lorenzo Musetti

Form Index: 55.4
ELO Rating: 1878.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1911.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 210.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 61.8
Clay: 49.9
Grass: 47.4
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 90.8

Recent Matches

Jiri Lehecka

Lorenzo Musetti

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jiri Lehecka
vs
1
Lorenzo Musetti
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In Madrid’s Masters 1000 round of 16 on clay, Lorenzo Musetti is narrowly favored to get past Jiri Lehecka in what projects as a tight contest. The model gives Musetti a 51.89% chance to win versus 48.11% for Lehecka, with an expected total of about 23.9 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Lehecka arrives as world No. 14 with a strong recent form index (83.9) and an Elo of 1861, showing momentum after three consecutive wins, including two in Madrid. His surface strength index (45.6) is below mid-range, but his mean serve index (83.9) indicates a solid serving day on clay. Musetti, ranked 9th with a slightly higher Elo (1878.6), carries a lower form index (55.4) but a superior serving and returning profile. The gap in mean serve index (Musetti 97.35 vs Lehecka 83.93) is meaningful and likely to shape key service holds; the mean return index difference (Musetti 90.81 vs Lehecka 62.54) is also pronounced, which favors Musetti in longer exchanges and in converting break opportunities. Fatigue is comparable — Lehecka 214 minutes vs Musetti 210 minutes in this event — so prior court time is unlikely to be a decisive differentiator. Recent results underline contrasting rhythms: Lehecka has three straight wins, including a comfortable last-32 victory in Madrid and a long match in Monte Carlo earlier in the clay swing. Musetti has been solid in Madrid with straight-set wins over Hurkacz and Griekspoor but did lose in Barcelona prior to this event, suggesting some volatility in form.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.9 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Jiri Lehecka versus Lorenzo Musetti. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Jiri Lehecka versus Lorenzo Musetti. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jiri Lehecka - Lorenzo Musetti) -0.8 Most likely spread: -1 (Lorenzo Musetti wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Jiri Lehecka versus Lorenzo Musetti. Positive values indicate Jiri Lehecka winning more games, negative values indicate Lorenzo Musetti winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Jiri Lehecka versus Lorenzo Musetti. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 7.04 for the match and the predicted aces distribution will skew toward Musetti given his substantially higher serve index. Clay usually reduces ace volume, so actual numbers may be lower than on faster surfaces. The model’s double faults prediction is 4.79 expected double faults for the match; longer points and physical toll on clay raise the chance of late-match serving lapses.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 7.0 Most likely: 7 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.8 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Jiri Lehecka versus Lorenzo Musetti. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Jiri Lehecka versus Lorenzo Musetti. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Jiri Lehecka versus Lorenzo Musetti. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Jiri Lehecka versus Lorenzo Musetti. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Musetti’s edge comes from superior serving and returning metrics that balance out Lehecka’s recent form and solid serving. The key factor to watch is whether Musetti’s return pressure converts early breaks — if so, he should justify the narrow favoritism.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel