Basel Switzerland Hard Atp 500 Finals

Jiri Lehecka vs Valentin Vacherot Prediction

Jiri Lehecka

Rank: #21
60%
VS

Valentin Vacherot

Rank: #31
40%
Expected Total Games: 25.7
Predicted Winner: Jiri Lehecka

Why the Model Favors Jiri Lehecka

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +7.8 Jiri Lehecka
Surface fit +1.9 Jiri Lehecka
Age +1.7 Jiri Lehecka
Overall strength +1.2 Jiri Lehecka
Recent record by level +0.8 Valentin Vacherot

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 60% for Jiri Lehecka. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Jiri Lehecka

  • Current #21 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #12 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #14 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #19 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #18 2025-10-27

Valentin Vacherot

  • Current #31 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #18 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #17 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #31 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #40 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Jiri Lehecka

Form Index: 56.9
ELO Rating: 1879.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1869.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 419.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 40.8
Clay: 28.5
Grass: 29.1
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 88.0

Valentin Vacherot

Form Index: 59.7
ELO Rating: 1841.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1803.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 477.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.2
Clay: 28.9
Grass: 16.6
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 85.7

Recent Matches

Jiri Lehecka
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Valentin Vacherot
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Jiri Lehecka
vs
0
Valentin Vacherot
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Jiri Lehecka is a modest favourite, with a 60% win probability against Valentin Vacherot’s 40%, and 25.7 games are projected. The Basel Finals pairing looks competitive, but Lehecka’s stronger serve-and-return combination gives him the narrow advantage.

Match Analysis

The biggest separation is in the serve-and-return exchange: Lehecka is a little more effective on serve and the stronger returner, giving him more ways to apply pressure. His rank of 21, compared with Vacherot at 31, also reflects a slight overall-strength advantage. Lehecka has a small hard-court fit advantage, but Vacherot arrives with a compelling counterpoint: he beat Taylor Fritz in straight sets at Basel. Lehecka has also won his past three matches, including a three-set win over Jan-Lennard Struff.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.7 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jiri Lehecka - Valentin Vacherot) +0.8 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Lehecka is projected for 9.5 aces and 1.9 double faults, while Vacherot is projected for 9.3 aces and 2.5 double faults. Their serving levels are close, which supports the near-even ace projections, while Vacherot’s higher double-fault estimate could give Lehecka extra chances on return.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 17.4 Most likely: 16 aces Per player: Jiri Lehecka 9.5 + Valentin Vacherot 9.3
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.4 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Jiri Lehecka 1.9 + Valentin Vacherot 2.5

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Jiri Lehecka

Expected 9.5 aces

Valentin Vacherot

Expected 9.3 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Jiri Lehecka

Expected 1.9 double faults

Valentin Vacherot

Expected 2.5 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

50.6% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jiri Lehecka's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (35.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Vacherot’s serve is the clearest way to overturn the forecast: if he keeps the double faults down and maintains the pressure he showed against Fritz, the small gap between them could disappear.

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