Rio Brazil Clay Atp 500 Round of 32

Joao Fonseca vs Thiago Monteiro: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Joao Fonseca

Rank: #33
65%
VS

Thiago Monteiro

Rank: #209
35%
Expected Total Games: 24.3
Predicted Winner: Joao Fonseca

Ranking Trends

Joao Fonseca

  • Current Rank: #33 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #24 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #44 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #65 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #68 (2025-02-17)

Thiago Monteiro

  • Current Rank: #209 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #186 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #170 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #130 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #99 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Joao Fonseca

Form Index: 24.0
ELO Rating: 1312.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1548.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.5
Clay: 11.2
Grass: 11.8
Serve Rating: 63.4
Return Rating: 53.6

Thiago Monteiro

Form Index: 53.0
ELO Rating: 355.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1562.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 263.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.5
Clay: 3.4
Grass: 2.4
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 90.2

Recent Matches

Joao Fonseca
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Tabilo (1-2) clay Buenos Aires 144 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Eliot Spizzirri (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Karen Khachanov (1-2) hard Paris 110 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Denis Shapovalov (2-1) hard Paris 124 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (2-0) hard Basel 85 min

Thiago Monteiro
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Dusan Lajovic (2-1) clay Rio 171 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (2-0) clay Rio 92 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Hugo Dellien (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 69 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Franco Agamenone (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 77 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Murphy Cassone (1-2) hard Us Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Joao Fonseca
vs
0
Thiago Monteiro
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 32 clash in Rio, Brazil, at a 500-level clay event pits rising Joao Fonseca against veteran Thiago Monteiro. The model favors Joao Fonseca to win (65.30% probability) over Thiago Monteiro (34.70%), with a predicted total of about 24.3 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Fonseca enters with the better ranking (No. 33) and a substantially higher Elo (1312.01) compared with Monteiro (Elo 355.07, rank 209). Fonseca’s form index is 24.05 versus Monteiro’s 53.00, but Fonseca shows no tournament fatigue (0 minutes on court) while Monteiro carries 263 minutes of recent court time. On clay-specific metrics, Fonseca’s surface strength index (11.16) is higher than Monteiro’s (3.38), though both are modest by the index scale. There is a clear gulf in serving and returning profiles: Monteiro’s mean serve index (96.94) far outstrips Fonseca’s (63.38) and his mean return index (90.18) also exceeds Fonseca’s (53.57) — both differences are well above 5 points and will be important on key points. Recent results show contrasting patterns: Fonseca has struggled in his last three matches, losing all three including long clay matches (a 144-minute loss in Buenos Aires). Monteiro has won his two Rio matches (92 and 171 minutes) after a prior loss in Buenos Aires, demonstrating match play rhythm at this event despite accumulated fatigue.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.3 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay match is about 21.23 total, and the predicted aces will be tempered by the slower surface which generally reduces free points. Expected double faults are 4.86 for the match; clay’s longer points and Monteiro’s fatigue could push the expected double faults higher late in rallies. Given Monteiro’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute a larger share of the predicted aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 21.2 Most likely: 21 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.9 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Fonseca’s higher ranking, Elo and fresher legs give him the edge in the model despite Monteiro’s strong serve-return metrics and match rhythm in Rio. Key factor to watch: whether Monteiro’s heavy serving can overcome fatigue on clay and convert on returnable second serves.

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