Cincinnati OH, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Joao Fonseca vs Yunchaokete Bu Prediction

Joao Fonseca

Rank: #49
58%
VS

Yunchaokete Bu

Rank: #76
42%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Joao Fonseca

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Ranking Trends

Joao Fonseca

  • Current #49 2025-07-28
  • 3 mo ago #65 2025-05-05
  • 6 mo ago #98 2025-02-03
  • 9 mo ago #150 2024-11-04
  • 12 mo ago #167 2024-08-12

Yunchaokete Bu

  • Current #76 2025-07-28
  • 3 mo ago #73 2025-05-05
  • 6 mo ago #68 2025-02-03
  • 9 mo ago #72 2024-11-04
  • 12 mo ago #125 2024-08-12

Player Metrics

Joao Fonseca

Form Index: 46.3
ELO Rating: 1130.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1631.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.3
Clay: 9.1
Grass: 5.0
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 85.8

Yunchaokete Bu

Form Index: 38.3
ELO Rating: 644.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1515.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.2
Clay: 5.5
Grass: 5.6
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 86.0

Recent Matches

Joao Fonseca
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Yunchaokete Bu
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Sonego (0-2) hard Toronto 79 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Vit Kopriva (2-0) hard Toronto 110 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (0-2) hard Washington 109 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs David Goffin (2-0) hard Washington 104 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Emilio Nava (1-2) hard Los Cabos 182 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Joao Fonseca
vs
0
Yunchaokete Bu
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Joao Fonseca and Yunchaokete Bu at the Cincinnati Masters 1000 event promises to be an intriguing battle on hard courts. Fonseca, ranked 49th, is predicted to emerge victorious with a win probability of 58.30%, while Bu, ranked 76th, holds a probability of 41.70%. The match is expected to be competitive, with a predicted total of 23 games played.

Match Analysis

Joao Fonseca brings a solid profile into this match with an Elo rating of 1130.42 and a form index of 46.34, suggesting he has the skills to compete effectively at this level despite some recent struggles. His surface strength index sits at 7.31, which is respectable, and he boasts a mean serve index of 95.88, indicating strong service capabilities. In contrast, Yunchaokete Bu, with a lower Elo rating of 644.60 and a form index of 38.27, faces a steeper challenge. Bu's surface strength index is slightly better at 8.15, but his mean serve index of 96.02 is only marginally superior to Fonseca’s. Recent performances reveal a stark contrast between the players. Fonseca has lost his last two matches, including a tough outing in Toronto against Tristan Schoolkate, where he failed to win a set. On the other hand, Bu showed resilience by winning one of his last three matches against Vit Kopriva, but he too faced defeat against Lorenzo Sonego in his most recent contest. This inconsistency could play a crucial role in the upcoming match.

Final Prediction

Joao Fonseca holds a slight edge due to his higher ranking, recent competitive experience, and stronger serve, despite his recent losses. A key factor to watch will be how each player handles pressure, especially in crucial service games, as both will be seeking to regain form and confidence on the hard surface.

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