Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Jordan Thompson vs Corentin Moutet Prediction

Jordan Thompson

Rank: #50
35%
VS

Corentin Moutet

Rank: #44
65%
Expected Total Games: 36.0
Predicted Winner: Corentin Moutet

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Ranking Trends

Jordan Thompson

  • Current #50 2025-08-04
  • 3 mo ago #40 2025-05-26
  • 6 mo ago #37 2025-02-24
  • 9 mo ago #26 2024-11-25
  • 12 mo ago #32 2024-08-26

Corentin Moutet

  • Current #44 2025-08-04
  • 3 mo ago #73 2025-05-26
  • 6 mo ago #65 2025-02-24
  • 9 mo ago #71 2024-11-25
  • 12 mo ago #69 2024-08-26

Player Metrics

Jordan Thompson

Form Index: 50.8
ELO Rating: 1380.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1594.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.5
Clay: 11.7
Grass: 13.4
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 86.5

Corentin Moutet

Form Index: 43.7
ELO Rating: 1253.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1632.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.3
Clay: 9.3
Grass: 8.4
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 88.7

Recent Matches

Jordan Thompson
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Corentin Moutet
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jordan Thompson
vs
1
Corentin Moutet
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Jordan Thompson and Corentin Moutet at the US Open marks a crucial encounter in the Round of 128 on hard courts. With Moutet favored to win, he holds a probability of 64.84% compared to Thompson's 35.16%. The predicted total number of games played in this match is estimated to be 36.

Match Analysis

Jordan Thompson is currently ranked 50th, with a form index of 50.77 and an Elo rating of 1380.45. He has a surface strength index of 14.45, indicating a moderate performance on hard courts. In contrast, Corentin Moutet, ranked 44th, has a lower form index of 43.70 and an Elo rating of 1253.23. His surface strength index is also lower at 9.33. Notably, Thompson's mean serve index of 97.55 surpasses Moutet's 94.87 by a margin greater than 5 points, which indicates a stronger serve for Thompson. However, Moutet's mean return index of 88.73 is significantly better than Thompson's 86.51, providing him with an edge in returning serves. Reviewing their recent performances, Thompson is coming off three consecutive matches, having lost the last two against Adrian Mannarino and Taylor Fritz, with the only win coming against Luciano Darderi. Conversely, Moutet's last three matches include a win against Mackenzie McDonald, alongside two losses against Alex Michelsen and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. This inconsistency for Moutet may raise concerns, yet his overall performance and better return game position him favorably.

Final Prediction

Corentin Moutet is predicted to have the upper hand due to his superior return capabilities and recent match experience, despite both players showing inconsistencies. A key factor to observe will be how effectively Moutet can capitalize on his return opportunities against Thompson's strong serve.

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