Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Alex Michelsen vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Prediction

Alex Michelsen

Rank: #32
65%
VS

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Rank: #115
35%
Predicted Games Played: 36.0
Predicted Winner: Alex Michelsen

Player Metrics

Alex Michelsen

Form Index: 20.0
ELO Rating: 1245.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1580.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.8
Clay: 9.8
Grass: 8.9
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 88.7

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Form Index: 81.5
ELO Rating: 665.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1591.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.7
Clay: 6.5
Grass: 3.9
Serve Rating: 94.8
Return Rating: 89.7

Recent Matches

Alex Michelsen

  • Last Match: vs Nuno Borges (1-2) clay Geneva 101 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Laslo Djere (0-1) clay Rome 71 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Alexander Bublik (0-2) clay Madrid 105 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Frances Tiafoe (0-2) clay Houston 92 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Adrian Mannarino (2-1) clay Houston 148 min

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

  • Last Match: vs Daniel Elahi Galan (2-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Hady Habib (2-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Gauthier Onclin (2-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Chun-Hsin Tseng (0-2) clay Rome 78 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert (2-0) clay Rome 121 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alex Michelsen
vs
0
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The first round of the 2025 Roland Garros tournament features an intriguing matchup between Alex Michelsen and Juan Manuel Cerundolo on the clay courts of France. With an estimated total of 36 games expected, Alex Michelsen is the predicted winner, boasting a probability of 65.45% compared to Cerundolo's 34.55%.

Match Analysis

Alex Michelsen, currently ranked 32, presents a strong profile with a form index of 19.96 and an Elo rating of 1245.17, indicating solid potential on the clay surface. His surface strength index of 9.83 is relatively favorable, although his mean serve index of 97.44 significantly surpasses Cerundolo's mean serve index of 94.77 by over 5 points, suggesting that Michelsen has a stronger serve, which may play a crucial role on the clay surface. Additionally, Michelsen's mean return index of 88.75 is slightly lower than Cerundolo's 89.65, but the difference is not significant enough to overshadow his serving advantage. Juan Manuel Cerundolo, ranked 115, has shown resilience with a recent form index of 81.46 and an Elo rating of 665.08. While his surface strength index of 6.52 is lower than Michelsen's, Cerundolo's recent performances have been impressive, winning all three of his last matches at Roland Garros, showcasing a competitive edge in the current tournament. In contrast, Michelsen has struggled in his recent outings, failing to secure victories in his last three matches, which adds an element of uncertainty to his form heading into this encounter.

Final Prediction

Michelsen's strength on serve and higher ranking provide him with a notable edge in this matchup. The key factor to observe will be how Cerundolo handles Michelsen's powerful serve, particularly on a clay surface known for its slower pace, which can often lead to longer rallies and test both players' endurance.