Buenos Aires Argentina Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Daniel Altmaier vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Daniel Altmaier

Rank: #44
51%
VS

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Rank: #85
49%
Expected Total Games: 22.4
Predicted Winner: Daniel Altmaier

Ranking Trends

Daniel Altmaier

  • Current Rank: #44 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #46 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #60 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #71 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #80 (2025-02-10)

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

  • Current Rank: #85 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #84 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #86 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #115 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #139 (2025-02-10)

Player Metrics

Daniel Altmaier

Form Index: 11.4
ELO Rating: 1033.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1552.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.9
Clay: 9.3
Grass: 8.5
Serve Rating: 73.9
Return Rating: 56.4

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Form Index: 15.8
ELO Rating: 646.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1540.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.3
Clay: 8.7
Grass: 5.9
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 92.9

Recent Matches

Daniel Altmaier
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Marin Cilic (1-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jaume Munar (0-2) hard Adelaide 64 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Kamil Majchrzak (0-2) hard Brisbane 82 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Sonego (0-2) hard Metz 122 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Gaston (1-1) hard Metz 74 min

Juan Manuel Cerundolo
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jordan Thompson (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Eliot Spizzirri (0-2) hard Auckland 87 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Shintaro Mochizuki (2-1) hard Auckland 168 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Yunchaokete Bu (1-2) hard Shanghai 172 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Sho Shimabukuro (0-2) hard Tokio 80 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Daniel Altmaier
vs
0
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 clay-court match in Buenos Aires at the 250-level pitches Daniel Altmaier against local clay specialist Juan Manuel Cerundolo. The model gives Altmaier a narrow edge — predicted winner Daniel Altmaier 51.44% vs Cerundolo 48.56% — and expects a relatively short clay battle of about 22.43 total games.

Match Analysis

Altmaier arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 44) with an Elo of 1033.7 and a modest form index (11.36). He shows a stronger surface strength index (9.28) than Cerundolo (8.72) and enters fresh with zero minutes of tournament fatigue. Cerundolo is ranked 85 with a lower Elo (646.24) but a slightly higher recent form index (15.83) and likewise no accumulated fatigue. The contrast in serving and returning profiles is noteworthy: Cerundolo’s mean serve index (97.36) is substantially higher than Altmaier’s (73.92), and his mean return index (92.95) far exceeds Altmaier’s (56.43). Both differences are well above the 5-point threshold and will shape point construction on clay. Recent results underline different short-term trajectories. Altmaier has not recorded a win across his last three hard-court matches, including a long encounter versus Marin Cilic and straight-set defeats in lead-up events. Cerundolo’s last three include one recorded victory in Auckland and two defeats on hard courts, with a long four-set match at the recent major. Neither player shows tournament fatigue, so match rhythm and execution on clay will be decisive.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.4 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clash is modest: predicted aces 12.97 for the match, with an expected double faults figure of 5.16. Clay’s slower bounce typically reduces ace totals and can increase unforced serving errors late in rallies, so the expected double faults align with surface tendencies. Cerundolo’s significantly higher serve rating suggests he will drive most of the match’s ace potential, but the surface will blunt some of that raw serving advantage.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.0 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.2 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Altmaier’s higher ranking and Elo give him a slim probabilistic edge, largely because Cerundolo’s superior serve and return numbers may be partly neutralized on clay. Key factor to watch: whether Cerundolo can convert his serve power into free points on the slower surface; if not, Altmaier’s steadier profile should decide tight service games.

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